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This is interesting, because it implies that "team strength" is the product of many factors.
(1) Physical skills:
(2) Mental skills:
The first group is much easier to predict than the second group. However, let's take a closer look into Home Advantage.
Is Home Advantage real or a myth?
Home Wins: Which leagues are the most interesting to bet?
- (1) very enthusiastic fans lead to home advantage (Albania, Macedonia, Greece or Bosnia)
- (2) big traveling distances (Norway, Russia, Spain or France).
We can find less home advantage in small UEFA countries like Estonia, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Denmark ... and yes, also Germany or England. Bundesliga and the Premier League have the biggest crowd attendances in the world, but sadly most fans want to be entertained instead of cheering and helping their team.
Spain and Norway seem to be very interesting leagues for a home win strategy.
Last but not least, Derby Games are a special case. The traveling distance is ultra-short, but fans will be very enthusiastic and excited in a derby.
I have been to derbies a few times in my life and my advice is:
Forget about any theory here. :-) Just enjoy the beautiful game!