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How to calculate soccer odds?

Different strategies are known to calculate match odds by mathematical football predictions - a common way is to use neural networks based on historical results. However, we go one stop further and use 1x2 odds as base for our soccer betting predictions.
How many times is the underdog winning in football with odds like 6.50 or 7.50? More often than you would think!
Every surprising results is a problem for neural networks - the diffusion phenomena is well known in science. If we use 1x2 odds instead of results for soccer predictions, we reduce diffusion in a very convenient way. 1x2 odds describe very well the relationship of strength between two teams - and results after a 90' minutes match simply don't!

Collecting Data

You can't make something out of nothing!
... is a German proverb and of course it's true. Yes, here in Germany we are not only punctual, we are also a hard working people (by the way right now I'm wearing Lederhosen and drinking a beer... ;-) ).
Putting all German stereotypes aside, we started collecting data in 2007 and now our database contains more than 400,000 matches with 1x2 odds, opening odds, dropping odds and closing odds.

Evaluating Data

How to analyse these immense masses of data and odds - to find daily free soccer tips?
I decided to create a rating system. A rating system compromises all information available. It creates a ranking and new data has always stronger weight than data from past.
Please notice once again: The base of all rankings and ratings published here are 1x2 betting odds and not results!

I failed to make the chess team
because of my height.
Woody Allen

You can read about the ELO rating system which was developed for chess players, if you are generally interested in rating systems.
I'm a passionate chess player by myself. It's a great game of skill and knowledge.

You can test the Football Odds Calculator!


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