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Soccer-Rating.com: Maybe we can have a forum someday. I'm not sure about it. OO = Opening Odds. Most important number. AO = Available Odds. Here you can see what happened to odds, after odds dropped. You should understand the combination of these 2 numbers. Ideal is OO/AO -20/-4 or +24/+8. Because this means odds dropped on the expexted team (this should happend if odds are "wrong", right?). In my first example "value" decreased form -20 to -4, because odds dropped. But it's still a good bet here (home win). Your example is like -20/-34. This is not good, because odds dropped on the wrong team. We have now even more (mathematical) value than before. But this doesn't make sense. So maybe here we have motivation problems (it can happen in cup competitions with group stage), or the team has just a lot of important missings. -20/34 is avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's still considered a good bet (because odds drop) until mabye "5" rating to the opposite direction. You can tak e OO/AO -15/+5 (as home win), but you should not tke OO/AO -15/+10 (odds dropped already too much) |
Soccer-Rating.com: For example at end of season if we have teams fighting for promotion/relegation and other teams playing for nothing. Here we can't use soccer-rating.com, because it doesn't make sense. The motivated team will be much stronger than the computer thinkt it is (because the computer doesn't know about motivation). Solution: Avoid games with high ratings at end of season (especially if they have dropping odds in "wrong" direction). |
Soccer-Rating.com: 21/ 0 52 Games played (this season): 21 Goals scored: 0 Rating: 52 |
Soccer-Rating.com: For most bookmakers (like Bet365, Bwin) I actually recommend favourites, because odds are good enough there. No too low of course, but maybe between 1.50 - 2.50. In Asian bookmakers like Pinnacle you can also try underdogs. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't recommend it. Because how do you want to make profit with it? In 1x2 odds can be always wrong (also VERY wrong), but draw 3.30 is pretty much always OK for bookies. Just stick to 1 o 2. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If a page doesn't load, it always has to do with memory problems. It can happen if you have a backtest with a too long period (serveral years). Just use a shorter period then. Banker Bets is working for me. If it doesn't work, use e-mail contact please. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In "Banker Bets" you can fix it with time setting. Just set equal time setting (after "Save Strategy") like: Confirmed Time: 24 - 24 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Payout or ROI is what you get back for bet. You will try to get at least 100% payout / ROI of course. White background means this team has no dropping odds. If you take teams with high ratings, it's still OK. Dropping odds ist just one of the factors you would like to have, but there are many positive strategies without dropping odds, for example if you bet early. So yes, it's OK |
Soccer-Rating.com: The "premium filter" is a very old setting for premium users in Strategy Creator. It's not up to date and I will probably remove it. I just recommend not to use it. You should go for 105% ROI in strategies. That's a good number. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Odds should always drop on the bold team. These examples are all good bets: Take OO AO: -12 -5 -20 -10 22 14 10 4 And here are bad examples. They are maybe 100% ROI if you bet on "bold teams" but from my experience not much more. Avoid OO AO: 22 25 (drop on wrong team) -14 -20 (drop on wrong team) 21 -6 (drop is too strong and you are too late) -26 +4 (drop is too strong and you are too late) Your question is probably if this is still OK: OO DO AO (Opening Odds / First Dropping Odds / Available Odds) -20 -12 -18 That's a good question. I think it's not as good as a -20/-12/-12. Especially the first drop is important. Later in the day odds will always go up and down on both teams (and this doesn't matter much). But the first drop is a good marker and odds should not go in the opposite direction from that point. I would avoid a -20/-12/-18 (but take a -20/-12/-5/-8) ... if these are all odds drops during the day). |
Soccer-Rating.com: This can happen for example in Today page if you check [ ] Positive Lineup Rating (and lineup ratings will change from "grey"/expected to "red"/live numbers). In your strategies bets will never change. And it's also possible just to rely on the grey lineup ratings of course if you want to bet early. |
Soccer-Rating.com: VIP bets are related to the premium newsletter. As a premium user (paid subscription) you will get a daily newsletter with tips. You can make very easy settings for your premium newsletter (preferred time, odds range, number of bets). In VIP bets you can see how often a bet is in a premium newsletter. For every 2% we have 2,- Euro stake. For example if it is in ALL newsletters (unlikely, but possible), it would be 100,- Euro stake. In short VIP bets shows the best bets from soccer-rating.com. The premium newsletters themselves are generated out of the best user tips. VIP bets bundles all the power from ratings/user strategies into daily bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In premium you will get a daily newsletter with the best bets from soccer-rating.com. It's even possible for you to make settings for this newsletter ... like odds range, timing, number of bets. I can recommend premium account. If you (or any other one) wants to try it, just mail me (see contact at bottom of page). What you get in premium: * a daily newsletter with "paid tips" from soccer-rating.com: ~105% ROI * You can see all bets from all users * your own Paid Newsletter, your strategies: 2-3 days earlier * Strategy Creator: more settings, more bookmakers, full backtest 2013 * Betting Picks online: 2-3 days earlier, full backtest 2016 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Just from the previous post: Odds Rating is more important than Lineup rating. But well, simply the best combination would be 1) good odds rating (-10 or +10 or better), 2) good lineup rating (positive) and 3) dropping odds. Least important is lineup rating, because you must always see it in relation to odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If you mean to bet just on excpected lineup without checking "odds ratings": It's not working and it's not good enough. This is also clear, because a "good team" is OK, but you need to check odds at first point. Just betting on expected lineup I see around 93% ROI. If you add "odds ratings" (negative = home win, positive = away win), you get 100% The "wrong games" with good lineup rating, but "wrong" (opposite team) odds ratings, have just 80% ROI. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I'm not sure. I've checked it with the premium tips and there results are like this: < 12 hours 104% ROI > 12 and < 24 hours 109% ROI > 24 hours 87% ROI (but with only 192 bets in history) The problem with 48 hours might be, that this is probably a bet on Major leagues (UK1, ES1, IT1 ... with low profit possible). Also odds for these games have been out maybe for 1 or 2 weeks and we bet only 2 days before (where odds are already down). I think the perfect point to bet is the "time of first drop". And this also depends on the league. Just make sure that you are not too late. If you bet on ES3, then of course a time of "6 hours" would be OK (because odds have been known only for 12 or 14 hours). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, expected fair odds should be correct. I don't know your system, but here it's based on all closing odds from the past. If you take all closing odds, you can actually calculate expected fair odds (with only one correct solution). But for example if a team has 12 missings, then obviously calculated fair odds with odds from the past will be wrong for this match. However, what you can always see here is "strange matches". If a match has a high rating, then it should be observed (and probably dropping odds lead the right way). If a match has +0 or -2 rating, then in my opinion it's not worth to check it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Your questino was: Hello admin, is there any chance of winning in the long run by choosing a team with stars? I saw the opposite team with your star betting 6081 to win 1385 games, is it possible to buy in reverse? Answer: In general you should take black/bold teams and avoid the star teams. The strategy in Today page you are referring to is the one with betting on star teams ... and it's very bad. Bold Teams = ~ 100% - 105% ROI ... opposite bet on Star teams = ~ 75% ROI ... the difference is bookie margin. Of course sometimes you can think about star teams. For exmaple if lineup rating is very good and you see dropping odds on star team. But I don't think it's possible to make a profitable strategy out of it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It should be fixed now, but it can take 1-2 weeks until all teams are updated. Thanks for your message. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) bold is always with this rule: negative rating = home win, positive rating = away win. If you see a -10.07 rating, it's home win and home team will be bold 2) yes, it's same for every bookmaker. Well, excpet if one bookmaker has super huge odds. But if you have a rating like -5.00 or +10.00 it will be same in other bookmakers (there y it could be like -3.00 or +12.00 with these odds). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Your example is a good bet. ROI should be about 108%. I can see these stats for last year with your setting: Bets 523 Won 329 Profit 425.70 ROI 108.14% |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's more accurate in league matches. If you can choose between +35 cup and +35 league, I would always take the league match (except and end of season). Even the league matches right after cup can be difficult, if there was a huge rating difference in cup before. The influence is 1/2 from previous round, 1/4 from 2nd round before, 1/8 from 3rd round before and so on. |
Soccer-Rating.com: First odds drop is used. |
Soccer-Rating.com: We have 3 years in history with lineup ratings. Stats with all 3 years show the 1st round is negative (96% ROI). 2nd round should be OK (102%). Round 2 -5 is 104%. I would just avoid the 1st round. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If it is checked, you see all games with at least a little advantage in lineup rating. Like ∅ 45 vs. ∅ 44 is OK for home team. If you uncheck the box, you see all games. So for example you would also see ∅ 40 vs. ∅ 46 for a home team bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: These are odds after the first drop. It's usually the time when we are betting. You should try to bet 1-2 days before start of the game. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Only one time per day in the morning (around 07:00 CET). |
Soccer-Rating.com: It depends what's more important for you. We have 2 ratings: Lineup Ratings ... which you are referring ... and "Odds Ratings" (like -10 for home win or +20 away win). If you have full trust in lineup ratings, you can take the bet on away win. But it's always better to check also "odds ratings". These are telling you if we have good odds on our team or not (compared to previous odds from the past, a mathematical model). "Lineup ratings" are easier to understand. But "Odds Ratings" are normally even stronger ... they are not obvious ... but you can see which team has good odds. Simple solution: Just focus on games where both ratings are OK (or of course for a huge underdog bet your team only as a little disadvantage in "lineup rating"). |
Soccer-Rating.com: The check is 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 45 minutes, 60 minutes before start. Most lineups should be online ~ 15 minutes before start (in major leagues always). |
Soccer-Rating.com: The problem in European games (early rounds) is that some countries are still overrated and others are underrated. Latvia, Lithuania, Finland are all overrated (see country ranking). It means that we will have lots of bets on teams from these countries. If you see a -45 odds rating in 1st round Conference League it's less good than a -45 rating in 5th round UK2 (for example). However, it's just a temporary problem. Ratings will be better and better every year. I also think that in early rounds European cups the "Dropping Odds" sign should be quite strong. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, a "-4 rating" or "-5 rating" is: Odds Rating = match rating. Here you can see which team has good odds. In your example with -4 or -5 (negative) it would be good odds for home team (not super good, but decent odds). So you would consider betting on home win here. The other rating is for example a ∅ 56 rating. This is a "team rating" and it shows how strong the team is. Notice that it's not enough for betting to have just a strong team. It always depends also on odds. This is why there are two different kind of ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It has again to do with "neutral ground". I changed the match from Ukraine BEFORE (vs. Netherlands) to standard (not neutral ground), because it was played in Amsterdam. Normally fair odds won't change. Except we change a game fro m the past (set it to "neutral ground", remove "neutral ground" etc.). For Euro Cup now the "neutral ground" setting should be OK for all matches. It was a problem in first round and I corrected it. You can check "neutral ground" for yourself on team pages. It is a star (*) as a marker. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Because of neutral ground. It was played in Qatar and I changed it just in this moment. Neutral ground is of course a bit worse for India. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, the ideal combination for our "odds provider" would be "wrong opening odds" and "correct closing odds". Bwin is better choice than Pinnacle for this. I can also see that results improve, if Bwin is very early to publish odds (for example earlier than Pinnacle). And they are less good if Bwin is lazy and odds arrive only at the same day of the match (and are alread down). Maybe I will try one day to take opening odds simply from "the first bookmaker who publishes odds". And we have dropping odds if highest present available odds (from this bookmaker or any other one) are lower than these opening odds. PS.: In Euro Cup the "host problem" bothers me a bit. Technically yesterday it was a "home match" for Italy and probably a bet here. But let's see. Today we have 2 bets in Euro Cup. |
Soccer-Rating.com: yes, of course. In Euro Cup there's a little problem with "neutral ground", because there are so many hosts (stadiums in lots of different countries). And sometimes it's even possible that the actual host is "away" team in official pairing. As a solution, it will be always "neutral venue" for all games in Euro Cup. Both events should be OK for tips here. Except maybe the "last round in group stage" (because of the usual motiviation problems, some teams are motiviated, others not). |
Soccer-Rating.com: In strategies 5-99 odds rating means: You include all games with +5 until +99 (for away win). And of course also all games with -5 until -99 (for home win). Odds rating shows that e have good odds for a team (compared to the past). A higher rating means better odds! So 5-99 is a very basic strategy which makes sense. You get a better "price" for the team you want to "buy". For a specific game odds rating can change over time. Think about it. We have odds rating -12 (a solid bet on home win), but odds drop now. Of couese the new rating will be a bit lower (!). Perhaps -8 or -5 ... or maybe even +4 if we have a very strong drop in odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Check Betting Tools / User Tips. Mabye Lithuania today, 2 games. It's only -5 for one and +6 for the other, but sometimes that's enough. We don't always need the big ratings. This evening was South America (already played). There I didn't like the last round in group stage. This is always a problem, because of different motivation. For today just choose a league where it isn't the last or one of the last rounds. Lithuania, Kazkahstan, Egypt should be all good. |
Soccer-Rating.com: A good bet is with high rating (-24 or +18 for example) and red arrow for dropping odds. On today page these are with grey background (everything with -5/+5 or better). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Increase in rating is same as "odds rating" (exactly double). If you see -48 in Odds Rating it's +98 for away team in absolute rating and -98 for home team. But it's not good for the team with higher rating (for example it has 1900 instead of 1802), because it means lower odds!( a "stronger" team means lower odds, because ratings are calculated with odds). * all you need to check is odd rating like -48 or +15. Normally you don't need to check absolute ratings * at end of season it's difficult because of motivation. If you want to take a team with stronger absolute ratings than before: Yes, you get a motivated team. But also very low odds and it's probably not worth it. Te best solution for end of season is AVOID (= set "ROUND" settin to max. 34 for example). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Olitambo from "Betting Tools -> User Tips" is close to 100% SR (Strike Rate). You can even filer tips there with high strike rate. https://www.soccer-rating.com/bet/Olitambo |
Soccer-Rating.com: In Banker Bets it's possible: Betting Tools -> Banker Bets |
Soccer-Rating.com: on which page? 13.41 is most probably "stakes won". 13.41 would be ~13 stakes won. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Strike Rate (percentage of winning tips) |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, I don't think close or same lineup rating is a good bet for a draw. Because odds will reflect it (and we get low odds on draw). It's not a good strategy. For Over/Under and maybe even draw I like the information "games played/goals scored" on team pages. Like 54/5 goals vs. 47/5 goals. Here do the calculation 5/45*12 + 5/47*12 ... 12 because of 11 players + 1 own goal possibility. 5/45*12 + 5*47/12 = 2.6 = probbaly OVER = not a draw (?) ... this is from Ecuador, Emelec today. But to be honest I don't like the draw bet at all. I can't imagine a strategy on draw which works in the long run. Still you could use the trick for OVER/UNDER bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In Banker Bets setting "Lineup rating" you can also enter negative values. -2 or -3 is possible. -3 means that you will accept ∅ 42 vs. ∅ 45 for your team. I like "Lineup rating" -3, Min. Rating: 20 as a basic setting. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Don't bet on African teams which are already qualified. :-( Well, of course it's true in general. If a team is already qualified, it's not a good bet (the computer "thinks" it's a good bet, because of the numbers/mathematics). I will try to fix the problem. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I'll try to find a solution. In Africa Cup the problem is obvious. Many teams are already qualified and this means high odds, but not a good bet. The biggest problem are cup matches with group stage (last 2 rounds) and of course end of season in leagues (here you can use the ROUND setting. For example ROUND 1-34 is a good setting). To solve the problem it's possible that in the future we won't have -50 or +60 rating in leagues/cups with motivation issues, but just a 0 rating. It will be available soon. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In Africa Cup you can see the problem. If a team is already qualified for next round, it gets higher odds. This means a higher rating. It can be +40 (for away team) or -50 (for home team). But without motivation it's still a problem and not a good bet. Solution: Just avoid teams without motivation in soccer-rating.com. It's a huge problem, because the computer/mathematics doesn't know about motivation. It just sees the number = high odds. Red arrow is a different thing and always good. If you see red arrow for our team, it's good. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Dropping Odds = 2.30 -> 2.10, green arrow down. Rising Odds = 2.30 -> 2.50, red arrow up. Best is dropping odds. We get a bit lower odds, but it's a good confirmation for the bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yesterday was a bad day. But in general bold is correct. You must check results of 100 bets or 200 bets. Then your system should be positive (if not, change it). Don't judge it because of 1 bad day or 10 bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I will make a setting for this in next days. Then you can choose leagues (blacklist, whitelist) for today page. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You will see it in next days (this week). There will be a "setting" button and there you can choose your leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, good odd = high rating. Like >10 or >15 in odds rating. And lineup rating can be a little worse than the opponent. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You should always take the team in bold. This is the team with "good odds" (it's not about team strength, it's about odds). So even a weaker can be bold, if it has very good odds. A higher rating like -25 or +32 means better odds than a lower rating. Easy to understand: If odds drop, the new rating will be lower than opening odds rating. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, "positive lineup rating" is at least +1 in ∅ lineup ratings. For example ∅ 45 vs. ∅ 44 is a bet. But ∅ 44 vs. &empty: 44 is not a bet. It's a very good and strong rule. Sometimes you can also take a team if lineup rating is a little less than opponent. Like 42 vs. 44 for our team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: this is bold (black). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's more safe to take only bets with "lineup ratings". They have much better results. |
Soccer-Rating.com: A very good rule would be to allow -2 or even -3 in lineup rating. -2 = You can take 48 vs. 50 -3 = You can take 47 vs. 50 I wouldn't take 47 vs. 51 for home team. It's too low. |
Soccer-Rating.com: That's correct. Don't change this strategy. You can also try Betting Tools -> Banker Bets. And there on top of page you can see 3 "top bets". These bets are very good in last days. Today: Independiente / ARG, Cherno More / BUL, Dinamo / ROM. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, OO/AO -30/-15 is good, because it means that the market is anticipating the same match outcome as we do. It's the normal reaction of the market (if odds are wrong, they will be corrected.) It's also good to bet early! The opposite is OO/AO -30/-45 (rising odds). Something is wrong here. It's maybe missing motivation or lots of injured players. You should not take home team here. Motivation is really important. If you check ratings like -30 or +35, you must check motivation. If you can't find any problems here, you can always take the bet. The easiest setting to avoid motivation problems is the "ROUND" setting. Avoid late rounds in season > 30 or > 32. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You mixed something up here. We have "odds ratings" and "lineup ratings". Both are different. Odds ratings are like -5 or +8 ... and they tell you which team has good odds (negative = bet on home win, positive = bet on away win). "Lineup Ratings" are like ∅ 54. And here you can see which team is stronger. Obviously in betting this is important ... but as we have to consider also odds, it's not enough to bet. You need the combination of both ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) The picks in Today Prediction are always based on "odds rating". This is the on with -10 or +12 or -22 (it shows if you have good odds for a team). I'm also thinking maybe to add a feature that you can see picks only based on "team rating" (which is like ∅ 54 or ∅ 63). The best bet is always if have a good team rating + good odds rating (negative for home win, positive for away win). 2) picks are always for all bookies. There's not much difference. Maybe in "odds rating" it would be +1 or +2 with a different bookie. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Today page, Banker Bets & rating calculations (team pages) = Bwin Strategy Creator = Bet365 Betting Picks = Pinnacle |
Soccer-Rating.com: Red Shirt = Live/Confirmed Line Up Rating Black Shirt = Expected Line Up Rating |
Soccer-Rating.com: ROUND value is always depended on LEAGUE. We have start of season now. So for Ajax it would be round 5 (Netherlands) and for Salzburg round 4 (Austria). ROUND setting ist very important. Avoid late rounds! LAST ROUND MATCH from pediction box is always last match, including cup & league here. Also ratings are calculated always with last match (cup & league). |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, you can't win with virtual games. You should avoid all simulations (also horse racing simulation etc.). It's a certain loss in the long run. Follow the tips here. Be patient and you should be able to make 102% - 103% ROI with every bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yeah, of course it's different in lower leagues than in major leagues. In Venezuela we can't get the data earlier. In most other leagues (95% at least) it should be OK. Maybe you can even check if you put leagues like Venezula on your blacklist. Main update times for "red shirt" is 4x in a hour: around 15:00, 15:15, 15:30, 15:45 for example. Sometimes a minute earlier or later. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) Yes, 5/10 is better than 4/10. 4/10 is better than 3/10. You can check these numbers and they make sense. 2) Yes, dropping odds are an important filter and they influcence 5/10, 4/10, 3/10 3) these numbers show which team is a good bet. A good bet is not always the favorite. If you are looking for favorites, you must check "lineup ratings" like ∅ 60 vs. 54 ∅. But if we speak about betting, 5/10, 4/10, 3/10 is the right path (and you can use lineup rating as an additional filter). |
Soccer-Rating.com: 4/10 - 5/10 is the prediction and it means "away win". But only very little advantage. "Form" you can see on the line above and it should be like "7 Pt". vs. "4 Pt." (7 Points vs. 4 Points). By the way (for all other users), what's always a problem in soccer-rating.com is a) End of season and b) also cup games with group stage. Cup games with group stage like Nations league are a problem, because very often a draw is just fine for the favorite to qualify to next stage. KO Play-Off games are OK for cup games. But we should avoid cup games with group stage (except maybe round 1, because there everybody wants to win). |
Soccer-Rating.com: I like it if you set Accumulator: 1 Now you have only one bet per day. And then maybe OO: 10 - 99 Odds Range: 1.50 - 5.00 |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can't of course, if the red live line-up is not known yet. However in your example, it's 1 hour before start of match. In this case I would wait another 15 minutes for confirmed red-lineup ... to be safe. But in case you want to bet 2 days before start of match, you just have to risk it and rely on the green expected lineup. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Well, it's always a bit of risk to bet earlier. But if you have 1) good odds rating (like -22), 2) good line-up rating (like &empty 65 vs. ∅ 53) and 3) odds start to drop (red arrow), then you have 3 arguments for a bet. These are usually good ones. Of course you always have to |
Soccer-Rating.com: This happens normally only at end of season. You can also check that results here at end of season are not that good, because ratings are messed up. But at start/middle of season you don't need to bother about it. At end of season you should check every game with high ratings ... if you can see a reason (in league table) why our team has a 55 rating and high odds, just avoid it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's form last 3 matches. 6p, 3:6 ist for example 2 wins, 3:6 goals (maybe WinWinLose in last 3) |
Soccer-Rating.com: Under/Over and draws are both not really covered here. Under/Over is certainly not. About draws you might check which look very equal. Low odds ratings and about equal line-up ratings like ∅ 45 vs. ∅ 46. |
Soccer-Rating.com: The ∅ lineup ratings are just "sum of player ratings" / 11. We have "green" expected line up rating and "red" confirmed live lineup rating. Especially in cup games it's very useful to wait for live ratings. Individual player ratings are calculated with a mix of player stats (games played / goals scored) and also last transfer value. In short, rating of a player goes up, if he's very often in starting lineup. And reserve players will lose rating points over time. Also the green "expected lineup rating" is assuming that the best team will be playing (without injured/suspended players of course), so it's usually a bit higher than the red rating later. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's possible that a team has ∅ 42 Rating / ∅ 41 Exp. ∅ 42 is red "Live Rating" and ∅ 41 was the green "Expected Rating". It means for example that a strong player is playing who wasn't expected to play. It's a good sign! In general your example is very good for our team. We should be careful in opposite examples. For example something like ∅ 30 / ∅ 41 Exp. for our team. This means that a lot of important players are not playing. And it should be avoid for us (example today is Karvina in Czech Republic). |
Soccer-Rating.com: If you can click on team pages you can see that "team rating" is of course "sum of all player ratings in lineup" / 11. You could even calculate what happens with team strength after a red card or after substitutions. A major problem is surely that "Live lineup" (red lineup) can be different to "Exepcted lineup" (green lineup). This can happen in less important cup matches. But here again it's interesting to check the difference of "expected lineup" and "Live lineup" ... and of course you would take the team which has a stronger lineup than expected. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1.8 / 1.78 was both bwin. You can see odds from yesterday for example in oddsportal.com. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's possible. It will be available for next season. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It looks good, but what about motivation? You fully understand soccer-rating.com if you check motivation and how the numbers/ratings depend on it. For example if home team has no motivation at all, we can have odds rating -55 ... but it's still probably not good for home win. Same is true for lineup ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In Setubal games it was 51 vs. 61 prematch (grey lineup rating) and 48 vs. 62 live (confirmed red lineup rating). That's not a huge difference and I have no idea why you choose the draw here. In both cases it's away win plus a very strong odds rating with +27. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Main updates (for grey lineup) are every hour a few minutes before at XX:30. Red lineup ratings can appear every 15 minutes approx. at XX:15, XX:30, XX:45, XX:00. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can check "Odds Ratings" (like -22) & "Lineup Ratings" (like ∅ 65). With Odds ratings you can see if odds are very good for our team. With lineup ratings you can see if the team is strong. As a beginner you can just stick to the highlighted matches (grey background) ... and maybe don't take games with too low odds < 1.50. Today I like all highlighted matches. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's a good point. I think it's now because lots of teams are playing 2x times a week. Lineups and ratings are updated after a new match and there are lots of updates in many days.. So it's more or less a temporarily Corona problem. It will get better ... However, now the updates are happening 2 days after the match is played! This is a bit too long probably. I can try to make (player) rating updates the very next day after a match is played. It will be done and probably also improve results. |
Soccer-Rating.com: "Today" page is the best and there check for: * odds ratings (like +8 for away win or -7 for home win) * and lineup rating advantage (like ∅60 vs. ∅50) |
Soccer-Rating.com: Odds in team page are from closing odds and bwin. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Sorry, here it's age. 22 age, 29 rating. 2 games played / 0 goals scored. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It should work. If not for you, please contact me by mail. Or do you mean to check with certain dates (from ... to ..)? This will be available soon. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You mean "Banker Bets"? With what settings please? |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thanks, everyone keep safe! |
Soccer-Rating.com: In Banker Bets: There are differences between the daily list of bets "on top of page". And between the list in "Confirmed bets". Confirmed bets are always the bets which you should follow. These are the bets with your settings (at least at some point of time). The list on top of page are "Live Ratings" / "Live Settings". They can change and because of this, the list is different (for example if odds change). But now when I think about it, it's maybe more confusing then helping. Probably I will change it. Both lists will be same then. You would be still able to see the "Live settings", if you click on "Test Strategy". About grey shirt in general: In can change the whole day. For example if an important player gets injured and it's known. Or if results/stats from last round are updated. But usually grey shirt will change only with 1 or 2 rating points. The difference from grey shirt (expected lineup) to red shirt (live lineup) can be much bigger of course. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Usually play-offs are included here as a league match. If it is the case, also "Round" setting is available for these games. Sometimes however play-offs are a "cup match" here. Then the round setting isn't available. But I can change it and the general rule is: Play-Offs = League match. Relegation match (between different leagues, 1st league, 2nd league) = Cup match. You are talking already about end of season. Again it's very important to understand the difference between "Dropping Odds" strategies and "Opening Odds" strategies. Opening Odds strategies are always the best in Round 1 -20 maybe. After round 20, "Dropping Odds" strategies are much better (because motivation is important, also there are rarely that much wrong opening odds anymore). You can use dropping odds strategies all the year round. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Both are very good. OO/AO -30/-7 for HOME WIN and OO/AO +40/+5 for AWAY WIN are pretty much the same and clear bets. Don't forget to check also "Lineup Rating" (like ∅ 64 vs. ∅ 58). If you don't know which game to take, I would suggest the one with higher "Lineup Rating" advantage. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Because we don't get live lineups in: Iran, Greece 2, Denmark 2. These are the only leagues without red shirt ... |
Soccer-Rating.com: Recently yes. But it all changes very fast. From Today page with [x] Positive Lineup Rating Europe: 2755 Bets 152.20 Profit 100.50% Payout World Leagues: 902 Bets 515.00 Profit 105.70% Payout National Teams: 24 Bets 90.80 Proft 137.83% Payout |
Soccer-Rating.com: The first question is: What is stronger? "Odds Rating" or "Lineup "Rating". Here is a new test from today page. We take only "Lineup Rating" and dropping odds as a filter. We ignore "Odds Rating" and also take star teams, if lineup rating is good enough. Filter is only Lineup Rating + dropping odds: Lineup Rating +0: 99.97% 8238 Bets -21.80 Profit Lineup Rating +5: 103.18% 4922 Bets 1565.60 Profit Lineup Rating +10: 102.38% 2456 Bets 696.10 Profit Lineup Rating +15: 107.42% 1107 Bets 821.30 Profit Lineup Rating +20: 103.61% 441 Bets 159.00 Profit And here is the same test, but we add "Odds Ratings" as a filter. We take only "bold teams". Filter is Lineup Rating + Odds Rating 0-99 + dropping odds: Lineup Rating +0: 101.70% 5138 Bets 871.00 Profit Lineup Rating +5: 105.22% 3041 Bets 1588.80 Profit Lineup Rating +10: 103.84% 1521 Bets 584.20 Profit Lineup Rating +15: 113.80% 682 Bets 941.20 Profit Lineup Rating +20: 110.22% 279 Bets 285.10 Profit It seems you can actually take only Lineup rating as a single filter, if you want this. Lineup Rating +5 or +15 looks good for example. But the best is always the combination of both. A good Lineup Rating + bold team + dropping odds is perfect. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Graph is available with "Test Strategy" now! 10 matches (with acc. 8) is because there can be new bets (better bets) during the day. If a new bet arrives very late ... and you already have your full 8 bets in "confirmed bets" ... then the new bet will be added to your confirmed bets. Blacklist should work. Again it has no effect on "confirmed bets", maybe that's the case in our strategy. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, opening odds and "Opening Odds Rating" (OO) don't change. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's possible to select only home in banker bets. It's next to odds range. A notice about the "confirmed bets" table: There you will see all bets that you can see in "test strategy" and in the table above with today bets. If a bet vanishes in "test strategy" (because a newer, stronger bet arrived), it will be kept in your "confirmed bets". So to follow bets, you would just check all bets in "confirmed bets" table. A confirmed bet never changes, never disappears. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Today strategy with [x] Positive Lineup Rating ALL: 4055 bets, 486.50 profit, 101.20% ROI HOME: 2040 bets, 437.30 profit, 102.14% ROI AWAY: 2015 bets, 49.20 profit, 100.24% ROI But ... I know other strategies/people who like AWAY more (in past years). The trend of HOME being better and also of favorites winning more is a quite new trend of this year/season. Perhaps it has to do with video referee (VAR). At least video referee influences betting without doubt ... and by tendency I think favorites should win more often than they used to do in the past. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Done! Your suggestion is very a good to filter lower leagues. Now you can set "minimum lineup rating" for your team. A good value would be 40 or 50 rating. What I like about Banker Bets is that strong filtering ("backtest") does not always improve results. Because it's a big difference if you take 5 best bets from 100 bets ... or if you take 5 best bets from 10 possible bets (filtered). So banker bets tells you if are going a bit too far with your settings and backtests. That's very cool. Some statistics for Banker Bets: After a few weeks now, the strategies with "Expected Lineup" have a little biter better resuls than strategies with "Confirmed Lineup". We have: Expected Lineup strategies: 101% ROI, Confirmed Lineup strategies: 99% ROI. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Malaga - Mirandes is a nice example. Here we have just different signs. Let's check our 2 main filters: Odds Rating: +9 = bet on Away team Mirandes Lineup Rating: ∅ 60 vs. ∅ 46 = bet on Home team Malaga Conclusion: It's simply avoid. There are better games to take. I like Malaga a little bit more ... but odds rating +9 is not to ignore (= Malaga is strong, but we have low odds). Avoid and go on to next game. |
Soccer-Rating.com: The range is not fixed. It depends on players. Approximately in big countires it's like: 1st league 70 rating, 2nd league 50 rating, 3rd league 30 rating. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, banker bets is not finished yet. There will be improvements and probably also Pinnacle odds. It will be interesting if results are better or not with Pinnacle odds. In banker bets stats with "Confirmed Bets" is always saving real odds for you! Also the time setting is interesting. Which strategies are better? Early or late timing? |
Soccer-Rating.com: Your idea with strong lineup rating can be simulated in Banker Bets page. There you can see that it usually works, but of course not all games are winning. Be patient! |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, of course. There can be drops in any direction. For example OO/DO/AO ... Opening Odds/Dropping Odds /Available Odds ... this is possible: OO/DD/AO -8/-19/-12 And I like this for Home Win. The last move is more important than the first movr. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thank you, I will add another substitute soon (now we have 5, it will be 6). We can also have a page where you can see the full squad with all ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes. In cup games it's even more important to check lineup ratings, especially confirmed lineup rating (red shirt). If you "wait" for red lineup rating (red) ... and check if it's better than expected lineup rating (grey), it shold be always a good bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In most pages here it will be evaluated as "rising odds". But I like the last move more. Here in your example it was in the end: 1.91 -> 1.95 -> 1.80. This is a good bet usually. Roma yesterday was also with a very strong "confirmed lineup rating". My tip is: Ddon't bet just because we have odds drops. After all, odds moves are always a kind of "consequence" and sould never be a "trigger". Choose your bet because we have great ratings ... and maybe avoid if odds moves are strange. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, you can try. But I would still prefer the comibnation lineup rating + bold team. There is enough choice today. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It depends if you take this bet early or not. For an early bet it's OK. For a late bet not so much. I tested with Today page and same OO/AO (no arrow) is even worse than rising OO/AO (green arrow). This is also partly because with same odds we have more lower leagues like Iran, Arab Emirates, IT3. So I would say for Major Leagues it's OK. For Lower Leagues it's more difficult. For my own bets I make no difference betweend dropping odds, same odds, rising odds. I take all. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's correct! With closing odds it's ~3% worse. Instead of 107% ROI it would be 104% ROI. But of course it's possible to bet earlier, up to 48 hours in banker bets strategies ("expected lineup"). And also you can try to find better odds than odds from Bwin. But I must admit at least for the strategies with "Confirmed Lineup" setting we should use closing odds. Probably I will change the confirmed lineup history to closing odds in next days. What's true: The history stats from "Confirmed Lineup" are a bit too high. However, in "Confirmed Bets" results you can see 100% true odds (= very low odds). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Gray background is always a good hint, but it's not needed for a good bet. It means Dropping Odds, and if odds already dropped, it's often too late. *Star teams are always to avoid. Teams in black are to take. Arrows show dropping odds (red) or rising odds (green). The normal way is that you watch out for a black team with red arrow. Lineup Rating: Of course 49 vs. 32 would be a stronger than for example 48 vs. 44 for home win. Lineup ratings are easy to understand. You just want a strong team. Summary: 1) Black team with 2) red arrow and 3) strong lineup rating is a good choice. But of course it's not the only combimation possible. For me arrows are the least important from these 3 filters. |
Soccer-Rating.com: We don't need much lineup rating advantage. I like +1 or +2. For example ∅ 45 vs. ∅ 44 is alright with bold teams. |
Soccer-Rating.com: We don't have super cup matches in general. (I've added Spain Supercopa now, because it's seems to be a serious competition). Maybe teams are not playing with best players, sometimes it's on neutral ground, sometimes not. It's better to leave it out here. If you are interested in this game, just use Odds Calculator to get fair odds. In Odds calculator you can also check (N) Neutral ground or not. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, exactly. For example "Round 35 - 99" (which is recommended to avoid) in Europe is like 80% Payout and in World Leagues it's like 115% for Today page. I believe it's because most European Leagues finish with round 34 or 38 ... and World Leagues in South America with Apertura / Clausura last longer like 44 or 48. Also motivation is different. World teams (with less foreign players) seem to be always motivated. It's difficult to find a general rule. In the end it's all about "motivation". If both teams are motivated, round 44 isn't a problem at all. To make it easy, you can take ALL rounds in World Leagues. And in Europe you should stick to "Round 1-34". Also for strategies it's a good idea to make 1 strategy for Europe and another strategy for World Leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's a first step yes. Use highlighted teams with [x] positive lineup rating. This should be 101% - 102% with Bwin odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Play it! Bets like OO/AO -11/+10 are still good for Home Win. Yes, of course if odds drop a lot there should be a limit somewhere. There is an easy rule that AO with "opposite sign" souldn't be higher than OO (so you would avoid -11/+13 for example) but this happens very rarely. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If you trust only OO/AO (and ignore Lineup Rating) we have in Today page: 97.43% payout for our team ... 79.49% for opponent. If you trust only Lineup Rating at least +5 (and ignore OO/AO ... so we do take also "star teams") we have: 99.48% payout for our team ... 81.00% for opponent. Conclusion: Take the combination of both. This works best. We need a good OO/AO and a good lineup rating. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Well, -76/39 is super avoid. I wouldn't touch this. I also wouldn't touch -76/-76. It's just too strange. Mabye an early -76/-56 is the only combination to be worth a shot ("odds start to drop), but not the other ones. These strange ratings have to do with cup of course (teams are not playing with strongest players in cup). From your examples I like: 2.) 13/27 yes, I sometimes like rising odds. But not the example in 1) or 7) 3.) 10/10 4.) 6/3 5.) 16/17 8.) 12/0 |
Soccer-Rating.com: A positive and low number is best for both settings "OO rating" and "Lineup Rating" in Banker Bets. So for example "1" and "3". Something like this. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it shows development of a few years ... The newest evolution is "Banker Bets", so you should look especially into this one. Banker Bets "Banker Bets" is the page which combines "Odds Ratings" (-20, or +5 or -8) and "Lineup Ratings" (∅ 54 vs. &empty 48). All other pages are strategies mainly for "Odds Rating" and they suffer a bit lately. To place a bet you need to know "Odds Rating" (what odds do we have?) & "Lineup Rating" (what team do we have?). Both is usually contradictional. If we have great odds (compared to calculated/fair odds), we might a have a poor team (compared to expected team) and vice versa. A forum is another cool idea for next years. Now we need first of all good results in all strategy pages for 2020. Happy New Year to all! |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, no problem with this. If you like rising odds, you would check the combination "green arrow" for bold/black team. We don't need always dropping odds for our team (especially if it's still early). The drops close to kick-off are more important ... and they usually have to do with known live lineups. This again we can see in Lineup Ratings. So you want of course a strong Lineup Rating for your team. For example a stronger "Live Lineup Rating" (red shirt rating) than "Exepcted Lineup Rating" (grey shirt rating). Qatar (Al-Garaffa) today is good example for lineup ratings. We have super good odds for Garaffa, but unfortunately today a poor team with many missings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: First of all you must understand how the site works. I don't mean the calcuation (formula), but the idea behind. * 1) we have "odds ratings" which you can find everywhere here: OO/AO. Odds ratings tell you if odds for your team are lower or higher than expected/calculated. For example let's say it's last match day in season. Our team (home team) is safe and plays for nothing. The opponent has to win to avoid relegation. Then of course odds will be set in a way by bookmakers that home team gets super good odds and odds for away team will be quite low (... at least lower than expected/calculated by a computer). It will be for example OO -51. This is a good example to understand OO/AO... but it's also bad for the system of course, because we would bet on home team which is probably not good in this example (solution: avoid late games in season). In general you can say: -18 are great odds on home team. +22 are great odds on away team. This is a mathematical fact. It's a mathematical evaluation of all closing odds from the past which leads to these numbers. * 2) we have also "lineup ratings" (∅ 47) which tell you how strong a team is. This is the traditional approach of betting which you would normally do as a human. The computer does it for you. It's fast and precise ... we can calculate "expected lineup rating" & "live lineup rating". Of course not always the stronger team from lineup rating wins, but it is a great help. Now you can choose from these 2 tools what you want to do. Not everyone will have the same ideas and bets. This is good and not bad. Maybe you find something that everyone else doesn't see. That would be fine and OK! The tools are here. You must understand it first, then work with it. Yes, you still have to think, explore & test! But you always have the mathematical background of soccer-rating.com to help you. |
Soccer-Rating.com: E-Mail is not necessary I believe. You can see the "time setting", if you save a bet in Banker Bets page. Banker Bets If you set this time setting to "18 hours" (expected lineup), you need to check the page only once a day to see all bets (now it's not working, because here are no bets in next days). Always check the bets in "Confirmed Bets" table. Which is the best time setting? Early bets means a bit higer odds (because odds tend to drop), but later bets are more precise. Just try both! Create same strategy, one with "24 hours", the other with "4 hours" before kick-off. The bets will be confirmed at chosen time. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Happy new year ! Cittadella was a good bet. Cittadella was OO/AO 15/0. Technically AO 0 is below value, but the drop is exactly what we want and it's expected. Continue with this strategy and it should work. |
Soccer-Rating.com: ∅ Lineup Rating for strategies is calculated by lineup difference of both teams ... and always from view of bold team. For example ∅ 56 (bold) vs. 54 is Lineup Rating +2 (quite good). And 58 vs. 54 (bold) would be Lineup Rating -4 (not so good). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Individual league configuration for Today Page: Yes, it's another good idea which I will add soon. For example it can be useful to add DE4 to Prediction Today ... and maybe to remover other leagues which you don't like. In general I believe to choose the "correct leagues" is important. I don't like leagues with very few teams in league table like: BE2, CH2, CH1. Same perhaps with leagues with a lot of teams like: AR1. |
Soccer-Rating.com: The bold teams are correct. Try a combination of OO/AO rating (+15 is better than +1) and Lineup Rating (you want your team to be strong and to have a good lineup rating). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, OO rating is created by bookmakers. AO rating is created by the market (money flow). The normal way would be OO/AO 20/12. The market corrects (wrong?) Opening Odds = dropping odds on bold team. Your example is OO/DO/AO 9/11/9. This is a bit strange. I suggest to check only OO/AO. This would be OO/AO 9/9 ... and avoid in your example, at least no clear sign in dropping odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Lineup setting in banker bets is the difference. So ∅ -10 would mean you allow even a disadvantage. Like 44 vs. 54 for your team. It's recommended to change it for example to +2. A setting "2" would accept 56 vs. 54, but not 55 vs. 54. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You want to know why "Odds Calcaulator: YES/NO" indicator on team page somteims changes from YES to NO (or the other way). This depends of course on odds. With Opening Odds it can be YES, but if odds drop/b> a lot, then this indicator can change to NO. Because we have just too low odds now. The other way is also possible if odds rise. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, I'm working on it. It will be possible probably this year + even more settings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) Opening odds can be different if Bwin has very EARLY opening odds (like 3 weeks before). The rule here is to open a match if it's at most 2 weeks before kick-off + it's the NEXT home/awyy match for the team. 2) Well, if we don't see the drop in "SR odds history" (opening odds -> dropping odds -> available odds), there will be no bold pick. "Bold picks" depends of course on the definition of "dropping odds" .. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, lineup ratings started in Feb 2019. So there's no history available for earlier days. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Expected ROI in banker bets is result from 1 year history so far, no simulation. You can see bankers of every day, if you choose date setting on bottom of page. End of November would be 2019-11-30. You can also use just this link and change dates in link: https://www.soccer-rating.com/today-prediction?date=2019-11-30 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Indeed, I fixed it. You can now go back a full year. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Very high ratings (or difference "opening odds" / "fair odds") have mostly to do with "motivation". The team in bold is not motivated. You can see it in Champions League / Europa League today. This is also the reason why don't I like too high ratings. It's good to avoid OO >40 or maybe OO >35. If we have very strong odds like 3.50 -> 2.00 I don't think it's a trap from bookies. They just missed something at start ... for example different motivated teams. But yes, a complete odds history on team page would be useful. From my experience the time in odds history 1-4 hours before kick-off is most important (odds should drop in that period, not rise). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Try "Predcition Today" and "Banker Bets". And try different settings. The result will be 5 or 6 bets and it's perfect for the day. |
Soccer-Rating.com: About bankers bets (in Prediction Today) I recommend to use: * higher accumulator for Friday, Saturday, Sunday (maybe acc 6 or 8) * lower accumulator for all other weekdays (maybe acc 3 or 4) I'm also thinking about even more settings for bankers bets. For example to exclude leagues that you don't like. In general I think bakers bets can be really good and it's worth to invest time in it. Because it combines both elements that we need for a good bet. We need 1) good odds (if you search for a bet by yourself ... without ratings ... you often forget about it), but also 2) a good team (if you search for a bet by yourself ... withot ratings ... you will usually focus oly on this part). |
Soccer-Rating.com: I like it best if you make this combination: * Bankers Bets ... with Dropping Odds And YOU decide what dropping odds is for you. You can use red arrow here as a quick indicator, but you can also use odds comparison sites (there again check for lots of "red arrows" for your team). Changes: Bankers Bets with "Expected Lineup" setting shouldn't change - except if a NEW game arrives during the day and it is better than the old games. |
Soccer-Rating.com: That's a very interesting question. Test with Prediction Today: OO >=20 Lineup >=1 869 Bets 493.10 Profit 105.67% Payout OO >=1 Lineup >=15 617 Bets 590.20 Profit 109.57% Payout The graph in 2nd example with Lineup>=15 looks very constant and the graph in 1st example has a lot of ups and downs (as we all know). This is surely because of odds range. A high lineup rating means lower odds. Here is another test to ignore Odds Rating and to follow only Lineup Rating. Prediction Today (bets with dropping odds): Lineup >=15 Ignore odds rating (= also take "star teams" ... if the star team has LR >= 15). 980 Bets 358.70 Profit 103.66% Payout Ah, it gets worse. The additional ~400 bets are obviously not good. So we need the combination of OO and LR. You can verify the good results of LR by yourself with "expected ROI" from Bankers Bets (change Bankers Bets setting to see "expected ROI" ... use lower odds range & lower accumulator to simulate higher LR power). Of course in LineupRating LR "granularity" is much more precise than with team ratings OO/AO. Do bookies check Lineups in every single game for making odds? Or do they just check the TEAMS (league table, results) to create odds? |
Soccer-Rating.com: Exepcted Lineup: We check "Opening odds" for odds range. The idea is that the selection doesn't change too often and with opening odds they are fixed - except for new bets which can arrive during the day. Confirmed Lineup: We check "Closing odds" for odds range. My advice is to play less bets at weekdays! For example take 5 bet at Friday, Saturday, Sunday and only 3 bets at all other days. And also I don't see it as a problem that selections sometimes do change. It just depends on time you visit the page. For example at 06:00 there can be little different selections than at 12:00 (for example because a new bet arrived!). This doesn't make the old selections from 06:00 worse, it just means that we have now an even better bet to choose. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can see it now in "Prediction Today" (stat for bankers is available if you change a setting ... just change accumulator for example). Stat is always for 1 year. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Apologizes. But the problem is only now. It's because national teams get ratings ... sometimes during the day ... and it changes the bankers. In the future it should not happen. It also doesn't mean the bankers which drop out are "bad". They are just 6th rank instead of 5th rank for example. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If you need 1 bet, did you set: Accumulator: 1 ? This would be your peferred setting. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Good question. Probably we can have lineup ratings for national teams at the next weekend. Let's see ... . Homepage will be updated soon. I agree news like this and important updates can be explained there. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Dropping odds are really not important anymore in 2019. It's not a strong sign for a winning bet. It's better to focus on Opening Odds Strategies and you can certainly take even a late match with OO AO 9 9. However, I like avoid of rising odds, especially when we have already a high OO and AO gets even higher. OO AO 10 20 is AVOID for example, but OO AO 1 11 can be TAKE. If you want a general rule, I would say +10 in odds rating is avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thanks, new banker's bets are sorted by proportion of strength! It's not sorted by ∅ 50 - ∅ 40 but ∅ 50 / ∅ 40. That way we get more bets from lower leagues (because 50/40 is stronger than 80/70 ... and even than 80/65), but maybe that's a good thing, because these leagues are often under the radar elsewhere. It's a good addition to other pages here. And again it was an idea from "reviews". |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, this is another interesting idea. You know about the setting "Lineup Rating Advantage" in "Betting Picks" and "Strategy Creator"? This is same idea. Lineup Rating Advantage = lineup difference. In "Betting Picks" I like to test lineup rating with "1x2 Opening Odd Strategy" and there check the difference between 0-99 lineup rating advantage and -99 to -1 lineup rating advantage (yes, use negative numbers to test!!!). It's quite strong. I'm not sure about a sort function in prediction today, but maybe I can add something like the "banker" link here: Bankers Very strong games of the day on top of page with: - bold team (good odds rating), - favorite odds, - sorted by lineup rating advantage. |
Soccer-Rating.com: These two signs show a winning or losing bet. They have nothing to do with cup influcence. Cup is always shown with the cup symbol. And the cup symbol means it's either a cup game or a league game right after a cup game (which can be tricky for several reasons, also perhaps because one of the teams had a difficult cup game and the other team a rest day). To make it easy: By tendency avoid games with cup symbol. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Expected lineup (grey shirt): We do it completely by ourselves. Mostly we take the same team from last lineup. Injured players excluded. It works quite good, only sometimes very "strong" players are NOT playing in confirmed lineup, but they are included in our "expected lineup" ( maybe they are injured and we have no information about it). This also means that "confirmed lineup" (red shirt) is often a few points lower than "expected lineup" (grey shirt). But this is true for BOTH teams, so it makes no big difference!? Only in cup the expected lineup can be really wrong, if not the best team is playing. Confirmed Lineup: We get it from our data provider and you can trust "red shirt" of course. Very rarely some players with similar names are mixed up, but it shouldn't happen often. Player ratings: Are also done by ourselves. It's a mix of "last transfer value" and player stats (games played/goals scored). Older players have stronger ratings than younger players ... to show how important a player is for his team. Player rating is not only "individual strength", it's more how valuable he is for his team. Also for example if a player is transferred to another team, his first rating at the new team will be a bit LOWER, because he has to adapt to his new team mates. In next few games his rating will recover to his full potential. The same happens after longer injuries. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can see in "Prediction Today" that cup games often have huge ratings. Let it be because the underdog team wasn't rated rated correctly before (... a very old rating), or the favorite is playing with reserve team (... in UK League Cup for exmample). Now this will have influcence on ratings for next league match (!!!). Influence is always 1/2 for next game, 1/4 for the game after and so on. So if we have -40 in a cup game, it would be normal and no surprise to have +20 in the next league game ... to get equilibrium and to have same ratings as before. Influence of cup is strong. So you can avoid the next league match after cup. [x] Exclude 1st match after cup in strategies. In theory it will make your strategy stronger (payout), but mabye you still lose profit, because we have fewer games. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bwin is always late. By tendency I like it more if Pinnacle has lower odds than Bwin for a certain match ... than the other way round like in your example. Villarreal is quite OK (Odds rating, Lineup rating). What I don't like is "odds flow "/ market reaction + "form" of Villarreal (2 wins in a row, last game convincing 4:1 win!). In form we should think anti-cyclic. Good form is often suspiscious. Villarreal has great form and we get even higher odds than before? If it is in your strategy with fixed settings, take it. But I wouldn't choose it manually. A good tip for today 31/10 was "Al Ahli" / Saudi Arabia, as a positive example. Almost no odds drift in Pinnacle, but strong odds, good ratings and also form check is OK (which means not too great form). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Depends. But what's important to know is that "World" leagues are usually a bit weaker than European leagues (which are mostly at weekend). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Clever, but how do you know closing odds? If you make a virtual backcheck this way (you bet when odds were higher than closing odds later), I'm sure it's profitable, but of course you don't know closing odds before. What's important is to discuss perfect time of betting. I believe now betting quite late on match day is not worse than betting very early. Yes, you lose some value in odds, because they may have already dropped (which can mean -0.10 or -0.20 to your profit), but you also can avoid that one losing game which adds +1 to your profit. I just don't like "Live Betting" during the match. This is too late. Anything before is OK, for example just after confirmed lineup ratings have arrived. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thanks for your comment, we will always try to improve. As long as the site is "growing" (... and every time you visit the site, you contribute to it ...), there will be new ideas and improvmments. Little by little. Another improvement can be that you don't need to reload "Prediction Today" every time to get updates. By the way, update times for lineups are: XX:01, XX:16, XX:31, XX:46 (sometimes +1 or +2 minutes). |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is strength as seen by bookies. What you want to find here is a low ranked team where you beleive it deserves to be ranked here. This will be an underrated team and it's good to take it. Of course you can even take the highest rated team, if you believe the difference to 2nd ranked teams should be even hihger. But general rule is: TAKE underrated teams which are low ranked and AVOID overrated teams which are high ranked in this list. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, increase in AO means it's unpopular. Well, if there is a new injury of a very important player or just a strange "confirmed lineup" you will see a rise in AO. But I use some systems where I don't care about drop or rise (because after all you get even better odds after the rise). These kind of systems bet very late of course. Just before start of the game. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Underrated = we get higher odds than expected (calculated from all previous odds in history). Overrated = we get lower odds than expected Of course sometimes you can find reasons why we have higher/lower odds. For example in China there will be motivation issues again. Team which play for nothing will be underrated in soccer-rating.com, teams which play for championship will be overrated (mathematically speaking!). It's probably wise just to avoid late rounds in leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: About "Strange Odds" page: There are lots of very low leagues in "Strange odds" and the system has problems with low leagues, probably because odds - in history - are not very accurate. About "No Bets!" advice in team page: Yes, you can take bets with "No Bets!" advice (if rating is good enough). You can also take bets which are not grey (no dropping odds ... yet). You can contact me by mail about user kanunier. Contact link is in bottom of page. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, but drops and especially money flow can be trusted! The idea is that bookmakers set wrong opening odds (a wrong bias on "successful" teams). Not necesserarily because the bookmaker doesn't know better, but because he wants to maximize profit. A normal bettor or beginner in betting business will never bet on bold teams and he will like the "star teams" (not bold). But of course this is wrong. It's still the same team (same players), but now ... after the winning streak ... you get lower odds as before. Bookmaker -> makes Opening odds -> a bias on teams with good form, high in table and so on Punters / Money flow -> correct wrong opening odds. Drops can be trusted in general. I like to say: Every good bet must have droppig odds. But not all bets with dropping odds are good bets. And it makes still sense to bet on a game with OO/AO +22/+22 ... because there you would expect odds to drop LATER. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Murcia was a tip in "Live" (23|14). Huelva was OO AO 18|-2 and it's not a tip in live, if second rating (here -2) goes to opposite direction. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, usually you would say OO is made by bookmakers and AO is made by punters, because they place bets on a team and odds drop. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can write it here if you want (I will read it and not publish every message) or use "Contact" link on bottom of page. There you can find contact e-mail. Thanks! |
Soccer-Rating.com: I'm not a big fan of staking plans, especially not for those which increase stakes after losing (you have a bad run and you increase stakes???). Kelly staking plan makes more sense (higher stakes with higher value, lower stakes with higher lower value) and the idea must be to make it dependend from OO or AO rating. I tested once again with "Today" page and this system: Basic Stake: 5 OO >= 10 Stake 6 OO >= 15 Stake 7 OO >= 20 Stake 8 OO >= 25 Stake 9 OO >= 30 Stake 10 ... and the absolute profit decreases from 1,149 to just 574 units! It's because you only stake 5 or 6 in the lower rating range instead of full 10. Conclusion: If something is profitable, always stake 10, even if it's just 102% ROI. Always go full risk mode! About chess: My chess rating is ~1900. I'm very bad at tactics, but quite good in strategical positions. I like to have a longer term plan (to checkmate, maybe to sacrifice a piece to achieve this goal ... or to create a trap) and I feel the only plan of my opponent is to grab that pawn at the side of the board. However, a lot of times the +1 pawn still wins in the end! ;-) |
Soccer-Rating.com: 👍 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thanks for your comment. One basic element of soccer-rating.com is to discover lots of things by yourself. It's even possible to spot something that others didn't see (yet), including me. I want to have "all doors open" for you, and I want you to think instead of follow. Your are also referring to Newsletter 1.06. This is a paid newsletter with tips from us (110% ROI, if anyone wants to join, mail me using "Contact" link at bottom of page). We might add some basic tips how to use the site for the paid users in the future. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it's live odds and it can change. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO is very important yes. In Today page a stragey with >=20 rating (instead of >=7 rating), 1 year history is: 1,584.40 Profit, 104.91% Payout, 3228 Bets. This is also what I recommend for any beginner as a start. Increase OO to a number that you like, for example >= 20. However, I also have strategies with rating >=8 or >=10. It's also possible, but here you need additional parameters like ∅ lineup rating (must be better than opponent) or form (for bets we like if form is worse than opponent). |
Soccer-Rating.com: The best time is always as early as possible. However, the strategy is "anti-cyclic", so it may be that in some cases we have rising odds for our team (and here you can wait for placing the bet of course). You can see this with combination OO/AO rating. For example OO/AO on a grey tip with -20/-26 (???) is a little problem (we expect OO/AO -20/-12) and not ideal. I will try to include AO in Today page in some way. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Serious betting on goals (Over/Under, also both teams to score) is impossible. First of all you have only 2 options, which means it's more difficult to beat the bookmaker margin. And secondly Over/under is very much a statistical bet with too low variance and too much luck involved (also because the aim is to win the match, it doesn't matter if final result is 1:0 or 6:2). Don't bet on goals. Goals, and also Asian Handicap, is good for bookmakers. 1x2 is good for us. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Rules for Today page: OO Rating 7 - 99 Round 1 - 32 Odds Range 1.10 - 7.00 I remember yesterday was a match from Bolivia (white) which looked good, but it was round 34. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, for "Strategy Creator" the trigger is Dropping Odds in Bwin ... and if it is true, we bet with odds from Bet365. I tested your idea with Bwin odds. * The drop is still important. OO > 20, 1 Year history, Today page Dropping Odds 3238 Bets, 1,452.20 Profit, 104.48% ROI Same Odds 1573 Bets, -943.90 Profit, 94.00% ROI Rising Odds 1217 Bets, -264.90 Profit, 97.82% ROI All: 6028 Bets, 243.90 Profit, 100.40% ROI I believe here the filter OO 20 is important. OO 20 is really a lot. And sometimes there are REASONS for a 20 rating (= no motivation, missing players, financial problems, reserve players in cup games ...). What we know is: We have strange and unusual odds. We might be wrong with our guess of the value team or correct. If we are wrong ... well, probably odds won't drop. If we are correct, they will start to drop ... but we are still in positive territory even after the first drop with maybe OO/AO 23/12 or OO/AO -20/-11. = but of course you don't need to wait for the drop in BWIN and you can check drops which already happened in other bookies for all OO 20 matches. There are positive strategies with Opening Odds in "Betting Picks" (= Pinnacle). I don't believe it's possible with "Strategy Creator" (= Bet365) or "Prediction Today" (=Bwin), because the average payout is too low there. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You can consider "fair odds" from team page. But I never do it. It's same as ratings and I just look at ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Ah, OK. But both should be the same. For example if you check team pages and there you see a decline in ratings, then you will find the same decline in "OO Rating" or "AO Rating". Remember: A decline in odds rating or match rating is a good thing, because it means higher odds (the same team is rated weaker and gets higher odds than before). So anyway, YES, you can take it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't understand your question. We have OO (opening odds rating) and AO (available odds rating), and also DO (dropping odds rating) if you want this. Example 1) OO|DO|AO -25|-25|-25 this is take ... also without a drop (=grey bet), because it's a very high rating. Without drops, everything >20 is pretty safe. Example 2) OO|DO|AO -25|-12|-25 this is a bit more tricky, because first odds went down, then went up. I still like it and would take it, because again the -25 is a very strong argument. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Don't understand your question. If OO is -9 and team rating is 1690.32, everything can still happen. If odds drop on our team ... value reduces ... this means it can be like OO|AO -9|-2. If odds get even higher on our team ... value gets bigger ... this emans it can be like OO|AO -9|-18. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't have odds data for Halftime/fulltime, sorry. I don't see a problem with it, however I would prefer to bet just on straight HOME or AWAY win. At least try this for some time. Don't make it too complicated. |
Soccer-Rating.com: See "Contact" link on bottom of every page. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, OO Rating is fixed. Maybe it can change by 2 or 3 points, but never more. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Just bet straight wins. Home win or Away win. The more risk you take, the more it pays out in the long run. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 7/10 is "confidence" and a 7 is quite strong. 8/10, 9/10, 10/10 would be even better. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It can change a little, because the "draw calculation" is a problem. What's fixed in ratings is the advantage of one team vs. the other (like 54.34% vs. 45.66% strength). What's not fixed is the probability of a draw. It can vary, also shortly before start of the game. Let's just say, fair odds calculation will never change > 0.03 odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Rating here was OO -14 = home win Southampton advice. It doesn't mean that Southampton is stronger. It means that in relation to strength odds 7.50 are very good and 1.42 for Liverpool is too low. Ratings like OO -14 or OO +32 refer to odds and which bet should be placed. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Because fair odds ratings are from match before (new ratings = ratings from newest match, but you can't use these for predictions, because they are same as odds). So to see "ratings used for prediction", you can check it in odds calculator. |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is probably due to start of season. But actually there is no problem with CUP. CUP is good, esepcially for "dropping odds strategies" (= grey bets here). Stats from Today page: ALL BETS: 982.70 profit, 101.13% ROI CUP BETS: 956.90 profit, 109.18% ROI 1st LEAGUE GAME AFTER CUP: 568.30 profit, 103.37% ROI |
Soccer-Rating.com: check OO and OO. This is both OK. |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is dropping. If numbers go in direction closer to zero, it's always dropping (reducing value). |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) Indeed we know "fair odds" before bookmakers release odds. You can see this in odds calculator. We like it, if bookmakers are a) wrong in opening odds and b) correct in closing odds. This is ideal scenario and main reason why we choose Bwin for rating calculation. 2) yes, calculated value starts with >=10 rating (more or less) and strategy is >=7. I still recommend to be careful with huge rating numbers. However, lately it seems that big ratings are mainly a problem at END OF SEASON (motivation ...) and not so much at START OF SEASON. End of season will always be a problem here, start of season seems OK now, because all different leagues in a country are balanced and rated correctly relative to strength. Last team of 1st league has same rating as first team of 2nd league. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 2maniac, not all games are winning ... Dark bold / grey in "Today" page is one of many strategies. OO rating 7-99, ROUND 2-32. All games with these filters are grey. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, espcially for LOWER LEAGUES. I like most tips from LOWER LEAGUES / exotic leagues in live tips, because here the drop sign is very strong. Use Live tips for lower leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If odds "drift" too much (in wrong direction), it's not good. But they really need to drift a lot to be avoided. We have ratings for Opening Odds/Dropping Idds/Available Odds. Possible avoid for your example: OO/DO/AO -12/-4/-23 = Availble Odds rating is +10 points higher than Opening Odds Rating No problem would be -12/-4/-10 or even -12/-4/-15 (well, it's not optimum, but still profitable in history). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Please contact me by mail. Contact I just need your e-mail for subscription. What you get in Premium: * Strategy Creator: more settings, more bookmakers, full backtest 2013 * Betting Picks online: 2-3 days earlier, full backtest 2016 * your own Paid Newsletter, your strategies: 2-3 days earlier * a NEW Premium Paid Newsletter, soccer-rating.com tips for you: ~110% ROI with 10 tips per week * Place Instant Bets from all strategies with just one click: available for Pinnacle |
Soccer-Rating.com: Of course it's not always winning. Just as even 1.10 or 1.20 odds sometimes lose. To check it we can use stats from longer periods: Today page with standard strategy is now: 646.00 Profit, 100.77% ROI To use a filter to select only matches with lineup rating >= opponent lineup rating is: 1,320.66 Profit, 102.11% ROI |
Soccer-Rating.com: * Yes, team rating like 1844.43 is based on bookmaker's odds. * lineup rating or player rating like ∅ 65 is 66% "last transfer value" and 33% "player stats". We have again the market (= money) in calculation, but also stats with games played / games scored. It works quite well, at least for my favorite team. Stronger players have stronger rating. There is a little bias on older and experienced players, but this also reflects how important a player is for his team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey is recommended tips. Strategy is: Rating >= 8, Dropping Odds, Round 2-32 |
Soccer-Rating.com: I like very much what you say in your introdcution. :-) Because it's exactly what we want!? To be anti-cyclic. In theory we don't even need any mathematics for a BET, we just need to find a way to do the OPPOSITE of the masses. 1,2) You can see value in RATINGS. If you have the impression that we take more big odds than low odds, it's just coincidence ... or maybe not, if mathematical value is more often found in big odds than in low odds. 3) always automatically. In soccer-rating.com we have a strong mathematical factor ... which are the ratings. Soccer-rating.com ratings are based on all "closing odds" from the past. Ratings are a mathemtical fact and only one correct solution is possible (which you can see here)!! However, it's not always that easy, because everything is dynamic. Teams change: Players come and go. This is why you should even question a -80 rating (= Home win advice). Mathetmatical value: Yes. But what else did change in teams? Still we get an edge and advantage if we always bet on high ratings. Buy low. Sell high ... is the idea. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, you must check Opening odds -> Dropping odds -> Availble odds to see if it's dropping or rising. Possible is for example 2.50 -> 2.10 -> 1.90 for a clear drop (take!) or 2.50 -> 2.40 -> 2.80 for a rise (be careful! ... remember to avoid if difference OO|AO is > 10 points). Fair odds is not needed to check dropping/rising. Fair odds is always included in ratings and something else. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Leagues are very important. You can take leagues with >1800 rating points in "Country Ranking". For example this means no Indonesia (1752) and no Thailand (1790) right now. Also most South American Leagues are not profitable, at least in "Today" page. Continents from Best to Worst are clearly EUROPE -> ASIA -> AMERICAS. Lower leagues need higher ratings. If you use a strategy with "only ratings > 40", then you can take lower (all) leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, of course. In theory: Bigger rating = bigger value. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Neither, 8/8 is just the same. But usually you can take this. It's no reason to avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's just avoid. Don't the opposite of OO advice. |
Soccer-Rating.com: A good idea to avoid is if we have * low OO rating (<=10) * and AO rating is already in "opposite direction" Example for AVOID: OO/AO -10/+1 OO/AO +9/-2 OO/AO -10/+12 This is also a good filter to avoid lots of lower OO's in general. With higher OO > 10 I don't see a problem in dropping odds, because somehow a strong drop if often a very strong sign for a win. So I do take OO/AO +14/-22 for example (= away win, always follow OO advice). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Ratings are calculated from odds. Odds => lead to Ratings Both is more or less the same. "Underrated" means that odds for this team are very high, compared to odds from the past. Once again I can assure and confirm that these little sentences with "underrated" and "overrated" are 100% mathematics and proofed. If you know all closing odds from the past, you can actually CALCULATE "expected odds" for the future (!!). There may be different approaches HOW to calculate it, but the RESULT should be always the same. However, in some cases we have an "underrated" team (mathematically), but it's totally justified. This can be, because this team has many INJURIES, lots of SUSPENSIONS, really BAD FORM, low MOTIVATION and so on. So for predictions we have the mathematically side (which we can rely on) and of course we have a speculative side (teams are not static ... what changed from last game to now?). The trick is to mix both and this is possible with a good combination of odds rating and ∅ lineup rating. The best way to understand soccer-rating.com is to study a game where a team has low motivation (at end of season, because they play for nothing). There will be huge ratings like -50 or +60 and advice will be to bet on this team with low motivation, because the computer of course can't undertand it and will just see "great odds". |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, but I can test it over 1 year period and confirm it. 10 points rise is OK. > 10 points is avoid. -12/-22 is TAKE. -12/-23 is AVOID. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO and also increase/decrease is always for both teams. This is the concept of ratings. +12 points for one teams means -12 points for opponent. |
Soccer-Rating.com: "I like rising odds" is not completely right. It's better to say "I don't care about (little) rising odds". The normal and perferred way is always that odds drop. AVOID for me is 10 points rise. For example +13/+24 or -8/-20 is avoid. Do it like this: Choose some leagues you like, select games with OO rating filter (OO 8 or OO 10), avoid those with +10 points rise. It's possible, but not necessary, to take and consider only "grey bets" (dropping odds). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes of course. OO/AO -9/-29 would be possible and it's AVOID, because odds go in wrong direction. You want to have something like OO/AO -9/-2 in ideal situation. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In cup ... and also with national teams ... you need: * higher rating * you can trust "dropping odds" more than in league matches So in cup + in national teams I would suggest to take only grey bets (Dropping odds). You can still use OO 8 or OO 10, but watch out for dropping odds (= grey) and take only these. This is because maths don't work the same way as in league matches. Very often players are rested or motivation is different. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) I don't think that we influence the market, if you mean this. We watch the market. And what soccer-rating.com can do very well is to find "strange matches" / stange odds. Because this is just mathematics after all. The question is if strange odds are justified or not ... 2) Around 10% better. Bookie has 90% payout. With our tips you can make at least ~100% ROI. If you like to do the opposite, you make ~80% ROI. 3) Changes in last hour usually have to do with known "Live Lineup". Here you can use the ∅ Lineup Rating for help. In case of Brazil B there are lots of new players right now, transferred from other leagues. That's always difficult for any computer system (also for bookies). Other advice - mentioned very often here - is to avoid World Leagues, at least lower world leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, of course. -34|-24 is one of the best combinations you can imagine. |
Soccer-Rating.com: - all of your examples have Dropping Odds. That's good. Another fictive example for rising odds - be careful - would be 8|16. - however, in some games of your examples odds dropped too much AOIVD: because odds dropped too much. 1), 2), 6) ... maybe 5) TAKE: all others There are no fixed rules for this. It's just experience. I like 4) or 7) the best from your examples. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, I updated it now. There were a couple of new signings for Aucas - for example Figueroa (ARG), striker. If there are players in lineup which I can't identify, you won't see the "Live Lineup" rating and I'll try to update it later (for statistic use). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Rising odds on soccer-rating tip is AVOID, if odds rise "too much". Approx. +10 rating points are really too much. So you would avoid OO|AO +12|+22 for example ... but you can take OO|AO +12|+17. Your example is AVOID, I wouldn't take it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: To predict draw is not really possible with soccer-rating.com. Technically a draw would mean that BOTH teams are overrated by bookmakers. This can happen, but very rarely (mostly if both team need only a draw ... to advance). Just don't bet on draws. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You have to check on team pages which team is affected. It can be either HOME or AWAY. For HOME team it is checked if last HOME game was CUP. For AWAY team it is checked if last AWAY game was CUP. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I do it like this ... decision from IMPORTANT to LESS IMPORTANT: 1) OO rating - very important 2) ∅ Lineup rating - important 3) Dropping Odds - less important For example I like rising odds (a little) for our team, if 1) OO Rating is OK and 2) Lineup Rating is OK. Because dropping odds is the least important factor in my decision. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You must also know odds if you consider Lineup rating (in contrast to "Odds rating" - where you don't need to know odds). So your question is difficult to answer. 1) Just in general, look at OO rating first. 2) Check Lineup rating after this (if our team is big underdog in odds, of course a little disadvantage in lineup rating is OK). 3) Then make sure that odds on our team don't drift/rise too much - a little rise by ~10 rating points is OK. You don't need dropping odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, I don't see a problem with that. In "Dropping Odds Strategies" (= all grey bets in Today) you can take ALL matches, also influenced by cup. In contrast to this, in "Opening Odds Strategies" (high rating, without dropping odds yet) you should be more careful. Check team pages and make sure that a huge rating isn't just the "correction" of a cup game before. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO|AO -8|-9 is HOME WIN. Always follow OO advice (which is -8). Avoid means = you don't bet at all. This is possible if odds RISE to much (.. and also drop too much). AVOID would be OO|AO -8|-20 or OO|AO -8|+12 |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1 - 6) Dark/grey is a recommended strategy. OO rating for this strategy is at least 7. You can also choose games which are not grey (with high rating). Tips for (automatic) strategies: * Avoid World Leagues! This is very useful. All European Leagues are OK and normally also national teams. * if it gets too complicated, use "Betting Picks" page and create your own strategy Tips for choosing games by yourself: * it's very important to understand the relationship between ratings and Major Leagues / Lower Leagues. A -30 rating in Indonesia 1 is different (= less strong) than a -30 rating in Sweden 1. * check ∅ lineup rating * by tendency take teams with bad form ... avoid teams with good form = think anti-cyclic! You need experience, that's normal. But patterns are always the same. After a while you can understand what's good and what's not (a lot is about "leagues"). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Also AVOID. Check if 2nd number is bigger than 1st number (YES) = avoid. Take would be -9/+8. |
Soccer-Rating.com: * I don't like -74/-101. High rating with rising odds is AVOID. * +5/+43 ... is also AVOID. Accept is something like +5/+15, but your example is too much. * in low leagues it happens. Once again: Very often you can bet earlier. If you see a +55/+55 in league match (no cup), it usually will drop. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If odds dropped too much, this can happen. You should avoid if 2nd rating number is of opposite direction and bigger than 1st rating number. Example for avoid: OO/AO -12/+25 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Let's make same strategy as in last 2 days. We take the recommended team (bold) from "Popular Matches" with lowest odds. It's Cameroon for today. I also checked Ilves Tampere / Finland. There I don't like that we would go against the team which is LAST in table. I don't have a problem with Tampere if it appears in "automatic" strategy. But I don't like to pick it manually. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Both YES. Remember the drop is not too important. The key strategy are ratings. Drops are very useful for AVOID decision rather than TAKE. For example -25/-40 is AVOID. A big rating gets even higher? Very strange. But -25/-25 is TAKE and so is -25/-24. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Good question. I like a few hours before start. Approx. 6-8 hours before start. |
Soccer-Rating.com: NO, fair odds and also OO ratings can't change. With very few exceptions. Sometimes Bwin is mixing up teams (for example they are confusing "Selangor FC" & "Selangor United" - which are 2 different teams). If I see this, I correct it. And then of course ratings will change. This happens very rarely. |
Soccer-Rating.com: yes. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thank you. :-) Yes, with "Premium Service" (paid service) you will have: * Strategy Creator Backtest 2013 * Betting Picks Backtest 2016 If you have a subscribed strategy in "Betting Picks" you will get information about the Premium Service in every newsletter. |
Soccer-Rating.com: To analyze "Tunisia" you just need ratings (OO/AO -9/-9) and maybe "Prediction" from team page (7/10). The problem in Tunisia is that odds dropped only temporarily for TN in Bwin ... not in other bookmakers. So technically we don't have a drop sign. And without odds drop, a -9 rating is not much. I don't think it's a super good bet. However, it will be in "Today Prediction" statistics and maybe you try it. Today the best is "Osters" / Sweden ... with quite high odds though. Regarding National Teams in general I see similiarities to "cup games" for club teams. This means for example: A drop sign for national teams is very strong. Odds Rating (a low one, like -9 or +12 WITHOUT drop) is less strong and probably not enough. |
Soccer-Rating.com: For "Banker Bets" you can use the new "Popular Matches" feature at top of "Today" page. There choose the game with lowest odds written in bold. Yesterday it was Argentina. Today it would be USA (W). USA (W) is not ideal with odds rating +1, but anyway it's a strategy and in my opinion the best choice from low odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In OO/AO -11/+4 odds dropped on HOME (AO is closer to zero and not increasing). And it's still a good bet on HOME. It's avoid for me if odds drop further to -11/+11 or -11/+12. More important than dropping odds is a high rating. You want to avoid OO +7 or -7. Also not good is if a high rating is rising (+25/+31 is avoid, but +12/+17 is accept). It doesn't make sense if a very high rating is getting even higher, but with medium rating it's OK. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Here it was only OO -3. OO -3 is avoid anyway. Well, if you MUST choose a team here, you would take HOME, especially because of the AO -10. Also ∅ Lineup rating was good. Still I don't think it's a winner in the long run. Better example would be OO/AO -10/-17. Do we take this or not? I would say it's still OK, but for example OO/AO -10/-20 is avoid. Same "tactics" can be applied for drops. A drop OO/AO -10/+5 is also still OK, but OO/AO -10/+10 is avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, in relative terms. But I recommend to use max. 5% of your bank. So 10/10 would be 5%. 5/10 = 2.5%. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Norway was good today! I don't have any best in next days. Probably my next bets are at Friday. If you want to bet earlier, I can recommend Africa Cup, grey bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Lots of arrows are coming during the day. Today was a mixed day for sure, but not bad. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Brazil C (BR3) is too low league. In low leagues ratings like +12 or -8 are not reliable. I wouldn't take anything from BR3. Instead wait for tomorrow and choose Norway or National Teams. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's avoid. Bold team with red arrow -> take (without much thinking) Bold team without arrow -> take (but start to think and don't choose all) Bold team with green arrow -> avoid With OO/AO you can see the "value" of a bet (how strong the bet is). Fair odds are 0 rating. You understand this 100% ... What means for example OO/AO -12/+8 ? * There was a good bet on HOME. * then odds started to drop on HOME quite strong * and now it's maybe even better to take AWAY, becauses odds dropped so much. In constrast to this, what means OO/AO -12/-5? It's obviously much better choice. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Sometimes my filters produce no bets. For this weekend I will have 5-10 bets in Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Japan. Other tips - which are often repeated here - : * Don't take World Leagues. Europe is much better. From Wold you can try Brazil, Japan, China ... but I wouldn't recommend any other league. All European Leagues and also National Teams from "Today" are OK. * Never take OO rating 0-5. This is just avoid without thinking a second about it. * MAYBE take OO rating 50-99, but only for very LOW leagues, not for MAJOR leagues * in best rating range 8-50 MAJOR leagues (=everything from "Today") is better than LOWER. * try to bet in advance. Make your plan for the weekend at Thursday or Friday and place the bets early. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Well, this is a very basic question. Do you mean "favorite to win" or "best choice for a bet"? Both is different. For the latter, we have odds ratings OO & AO. Positive rating = take AWAY, negative rating = take HOME. Only this is important for betting. It would be too complicated to explain it further. Just trust it. It's a mathematically value ... and if you are good at betting you can see that it works. Odds ratings are anti-cyclic. That means ... if a team is NOT performing very well in the past, has an unexpected losing streak, mabye many injuries and so on ... then we will likely TAKE this "ugly" team (and others won't). Because the mathematically value will be strong. We will get higher odds on this team than before. This is also why I like to consider the ∅ lineup rating from "Today" as a 2nd factor. Because here you can see who is the stronger team ... despite missings/injuries. It's opposite approach .. and more naturally. If both ratings OO/AO & ∅ Lineup point to same team, it should be a good bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It was wrong date (06/22) for a few minutes in Bwin. I changed it manually to 06/21 and it's there again. For national teams I also corrected a few matches to "Neutral ground" which changes ratings by +/- 20 points. But in general for national teams "Neutral ground" should also work automatically ... and it's important for calculations of course. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Norway |
Soccer-Rating.com: For me next bets are in Norway, Sunday 2019-06-23 and a good tip is "Brann Bergen". It's possible to have bets every day with ROI ~105%. Just follow your same rules and filters. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, these signs from team pages are useful. You can see in "Sure Bets" page that ✅ 8/10, 9/10, 10/10 are all well in profit. A drop of AO is normally good (dropping odds), increase is bad. But on team page it's a MIXED SIGN, because a too strong drop can result in too low ratings (we like OO/AO -14/-7, we don't like OO/AO -14/+22 = here odds dropped already too much). So your question depends on how strong the drop/increase is. It's not always the same. But many ✅ are good of course. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Here we have OO/AO +28/+14. This is a bet on away win. "Opening Odds Rating" & "Available Odds Rating" on team pages just checks if rating is >0 or <0. Positive rating is check for HOME & negative is check for AWAY. What I meant before is: If odds drop on a team, it's a sign to bet on this team. But on the same time dropping odds means we have lower odds now (!) and reduced value. You can find this thinking in ✅ and ❌. "Dropping odds" are ✅, but in the same time the new AO can be so low that "Available Odds" could change from ✅ to ❌. But to make it simple: Just check for many ✅. Your choice is Qatar, away win (or X2). |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, of course not. DARK is recommended. Both are OK. I just don't like bets with too high rating (>40). Score prediction is not possible here, sorry. But high ratings (especailly the very high ratings) means always a special game ("strange odds"), for example unexpected winning or losing streaks for one of the teams. So you can try both teams scoring and look out for DARK color with highest rating of the day. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Well, a bet is always balanced. It's quite obvious that in betting industry the majority of players is winning and only a minority is making profit (which balances the bet). You want to avoid to bet on teams with winning streaks, you want to avoid to bet on teams which are first in league table and so on. By the way, the same thinking makes it also difficult to bet on "dropping odds". Because here we choose again the path of majority. "Dropping odds" are very useful if we have a ton of bets and want to pre-filter it, to have fewer games to choose from. But they can't be used alone as a setting for good bets. For me they are more like a "confirmation", not an "indicator" or even "trigger" of a good bet. The preferred way is if you bet early on "white bets" in Today ... and they become "grey bets" a few hours after your choice. This is possible if you consider: match rating (>=8) + ∅ lineup rating advantage (+1 or +2 for our team). |
Soccer-Rating.com: BACK "Team X" means to take "Team X" (straight win). LAY "Team X" means to avoid "Team X" (use 1X or X2 bets = double chance or straight win on the other team). It's easy: Always take the team in black. And then of course you can choose straight win (BACK our team) or safer option 1X / X2 (LAY the other team). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Next good bets are in "Japan" and "Sweden" (starting Saturday 2019-06-08). I will have 1-2 bets in these two countries in next days. Late round is a problem and the easiest way is to avoid last 4 rounds in every league. A realistic ROI is 105% payout if you follow the basic rules. It's also possible to have up to 120% ROI. Grey bets are good, but we don't always need grey to have a good bet. We need a high "Odds Rating" (>=8) and a good ∅ Lineup Rating. Check next Saturday. What do you like there? Some good bets are present and they are not grey yet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: The main problem for many European leagues in month May is "end of season" and different MOTIVATION. Ratings don't work if one team is fully motivated and the other not. Try to avoid "last 4 rounds" of a seaon in all leagues. For example Premier League has 38 rounds. You should avoid round 35, 36, 37, 38. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Form is a very, very minor factor. Just be careful if our team had W in last game. In general: Good form for our team is bad, bad form is good. That's anti-cyclic betting and just the same as ratings (it doesn't seem to be logical, but most people will take teams with good form, so it's a good idea to take the other side in a bet.) |
Soccer-Rating.com: For me again nothing. But there is nothing wrong with Persebaya (Indonesia) today. Tomorrow Osasuna looks good with ratings, but I don't like "late round", so it's avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Montreal (USA) is possbile. I don't see any other so far. Or do you want to analayze a special game? |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, you can of course. Odds here are from Bwin. If odds drop in Pinnacle it's as good ... or even better. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It has round 34 and Today page has a filter max. round 32. I'm not sure if it was grey (maybe it was on other pages like country page?), but anyway it's still a good bet. Just the "round" is not perfect and you can also check this rule by yourself: Avoid very late rounds like last 2 rounds in league. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO/AO -15/-7 is good for home. OO/AO +25/+14 is good for away. You always want to have AO value to be more close to zero than OO. Because it means dropping odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Your examples are all Home Win. The combination "High Rating" + "Dropping Odds" is the easiest and recommended way to bet. It's also possible to take bets like +23/+23 or -15/-15 or even -15/-19, but it's more complicated and here other factors must be considered like ∅ Lineup Rating for example. If you want it simple: Choose high rating (>10), wait for a first sign of Dropping Odds (-20/-14) and then bet as early as possible. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey = expected Lineup Rating Red = confirmed Lineup Rating Red is more important. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Team X is overrated = Don't take this team. AVOID it. Team X is underrated = Take this team. Back it. For your team you want to have a low odds rating, because it means you get higher odds than normal (a cheap price for the same "product"). Same is with "rating graph" on bottom of team pages. There you will look out for a low point. The lowest point in the rating graph was the best moment to take this team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I had a few "ideas" for today, but odds are going UP on our team everywhere. That's not good and I will probably avoid the more risky bets. You can try Ireland today with games of your choice. In Ireland we have no motivation issues, no cup problems. Derry is the best from all I guess, but all other are also good. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In my opinion "Live" is the worst. Also it should be clear that possible value decreases with fewer time until start of match. From best to worst: 1) Today 2) Betting Picks 3) Strategy Creator 4) Live |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, exactly this one is on my list and no other today. I'm waiting for Pinnacle odds ... Lower Pinnacle odds than average odds now would be better sign than higher odds. Also I believe in games with "motivation problems" you can wait quite long before you place the bet. ∅ Lineup rating (confirmed red shirt) is helping too. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 4P. = 4 Points 3:3 = 3:3 Goals LWL = Loss-Win-Loss |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's not good for our team if last was W. Especially if team plays at home and last win was (surprise) away win. I like LLL better for our team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: None. It's all too unbalanced which you can see in high ratings. Also "motivation" is very much involved. -> high ratings are not good. Everything >40 is difficult. -> another good rule is to avoid cup games with group stage and there the last 2 rounds ... again because of motivation. Cup games in KO system are no problem. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Just don't use too high stakes. Also this one has OO|AO 4|1, and this means avoid anyway. Anything with OO rating <7 or <8 isn't worth to check further. End of season is difficult. :-( Maybe try to search in Scandinavia, Ireland or World leagues for better choice in May/June. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey is good but not needed. More important is OO rating (8 - 40 ...). So you would scan Today page looking for ratings in this range. Also very low leagues (like Kenya) are not interesting. ... in Kenya it's different and only those with grey background (dropping odds) should be considered. Candidates for today are: Ukraine Zorya (OO 27) Belarus Soligorsk (OO 30) Switzerland Luzern (OO 32) All with high ratings to keep it simple, but also rating 8 can be as good as rating 30. Although of course rating 30 is still acceptable if odds drop (because the drop will be like 30|22). Soligorsk and Luzern look good. |
Soccer-Rating.com: The betting tip always shows 1x2 odds. Also in 1x or x2 tips. So with 3.90 odds for AWAY, I guess 1.80 for X2 is OK. Maybe I will change the output to make it easier for you |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yup. Remember that you can see on "Today page" Bwin odds only. Now search for better odds / other bookmakers and you have nice profit. Also now (May) we have the most difficult period of the season, because of well-known motivation problem (teams with different motivation). It's still profitable ... but a good idea to avoid gams where our team has NO motivation anymore and other team is still fully motivated. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't like too high rating in late rounds of season. Avoid the one with >=40 and play the other. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO is the most important value to check. OO decides what to bet (home or away). Then of course odds can drop and there must be a barrier where you stop betting (because odds are too low). In theory this barrier is the zero (0) rating, but you can take even a little lower ratings. Like -14/+5 ... is still a good bet for home win, because the most important sign here is OO (-14). I never check "fair odds", because it's same as ratings. If you have a high rating >7 or >10, it will be automatically >= "fair odds". |
Soccer-Rating.com: We have OO ratings (Opening Odds) and AO ratings (Available Odds). We decide what to bet with OO rating (which can be huge). The graph will increase/decrease by AO rating (which is often a bit lower, because odds drop on our team). Also in theory we assume for future bets that closing odds are correct and true, because we use these as prediction for next round. And we doubt opening odds, because we think it's often overreaction for example because of bad results before. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Lok at the statistic "Advised Team" / "Opposite Team" from Today page. It's around 10% better. |
Soccer-Rating.com: What do you mean? Ratings are important. Ppening Odds Rating (OO) decides what to bet, because it shows where we get high odds. Negative = Home Win, Positive = Away Win. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Something like -20/+5 is usually OK and still a good bet on Home Win. It means a huge drop, but you can take it. Something like -8/+12 is not good and odds dropped already too much. If both ratings have opposite direction then just make sure that first number is still bigger than second number. +9/+57 is also avoid, because it means a huge drift. Again here we can accept little drifts (like +9/+15), but we should avoid large ones (like -9/-25). |
Soccer-Rating.com: With Lineup Rating you can see strength of both teams. The combinaton of "Odds Rating" and "Lineup Rating" is good, because both have different views. A high odds rating can be because of lots of injured or suspendes players ... this would be ruled out by a proper lineup rating rule or filter. Here is statistic from "Prediction Today" page, European Leagues, grey background. Our team has worse lineup rating than opponent: 93.85% Our team has stronger lineup rating than opponent: 102.52% Our team has at least +5 stronger lineup rating than opponent: 107.36% Again it seems to work better with European than with World Leagues. So you might try this combination: * European League & Grey Background & at least +5 lineup rating |
Soccer-Rating.com: 27/2 = GamesPlayed/GoalsScored |
Soccer-Rating.com: You don't need dropping odds for early bets. High rating and white background is alright. In most cases (maybe 70% or 80 % with rating >=20) odds will drop later. I don't like "green arrow" for our team though, but even this is sometimes accpetable ... if the drift is not too big. OO/AO -15/-20 is OK for Home Win. Check the new ∅ lineup rating for assistance. If odds rating is good (>=10), lineup rating is also good then take it |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) odds in Today Prediction shows the first drop. Of course odds can drop further. It also means you should bet as early as possible with dropping odds, mabye 2-3 days in advance. 2) Liverpool vs. Barcelona has VERY strange odds rating because Barcelona played with reserve team in league before (vs. Celta Vigo). This is confusing mathematical ratings and it doesn't mean that -83 is a great bet on home win. It's just no bet. A solution for system is to set a maximum rating for bets. For example odds rating 10 - 50. PS.: Here you can try to understand why Liverpool has -83 rating. Examine the team page of Barcelona and watch the Celta Vigo vs. Barca match with odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I really think that new ∅ lineup rating is very good and more precise than what bookies are doing. Because bookmakers always have the bookie margin and can feel quite safe with approx. odds. In lineup rating we consider strength of every player. If important players are missing, it changes the bet.
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Soccer-Rating.com: If you are bold enough, always bet straight HOME WIN or AWAY WIN. In the long run it's much better than X2 or 1X. |
Soccer-Rating.com: At first use same stakes for all selections. If you have reached a certain new level in your bank, make a little bit higher stakes ... and so on. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Europe has the problem of late season. For example USA is great now to bet, because it's round 2 or 3 in season. In Europe with -38 rating you must check league table (motivation). If both teams are fully motivated (like in round 2 or 3), it's OK. If you see problems with motivation, I wouldn't take it. ... I checked Croatia for you. No, I don't like Rudes. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Because odds dropped already too much. Today Prediction shows bets right after the first drop. It can be wise to scan also upcoming days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) for grey bets. I like the easy rule to take games with huge dropping odds below zero rating, if the rating drop is not further than opening rating. Example: OO/AO -15/+14 =take OO/AO -15/+16 =avoid |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's not possible I think, because the majority will pick the other teams. If you ask another punter or a betting forum, they will take by 80% the opposite team (not bold) ... especially if we don't have dropping odds yet. PS.: I also want to remind you that ROUND (setting) is important. Try to avoid large rounds >30 in season. Because at end of season obviously motivation gets important. Some teams are motivated others are not. Also only one game with different motivation for both teams (and strange odds) is enough to inherit and influcence ratings for all upcoming games (influence is 1/2 for next game, 1/4 for the game after and so on). |
Soccer-Rating.com: For Today page it's really quite easy. For WORLD leagues I like high ratings with grey background (= droppin godds). At least 10, better 15. High rating like 50 are no problem in world. For EUROPEAN leagues you can take everything with grey background starting with >=7 or mabye >=8. Here I like to avoid high ratings with >40 or >50, because it's just strange. Also of course if you see grey background, but odds don't really drop (because direction changed meanwhile), you wouldn't take this bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't use the setting "percentage of value". It's approx. the same as ratings anyway. Rounds 2-32 or 2-30 are fine. Cup: Yes It's no problem. Maybe avoid first match after cup, but not cup itself |
Soccer-Rating.com: With match rating you can see if we have good odds or not. It's a simple mathematical calculation. If we have higher odds than normal (higher than in all games before from history for this team), it's a big rating. Ratings >=10 or maybe >=6 are good bets. Then of course you can consider other factors. The new ∅ lineup rating or the prediction 10/10 from team page. Usually you will scan for example the "Today Predcition" list and look out for interesting bet. If you find something, you click on team page to check ∅ lineup ratings and prediction. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Green arrow is rising odds for our team and usually avoid. Red arrow for our team is miuch better. 2500 is a "team rating". It has nothing to do with a good or bad bet (this depends on odds). You can see with team ratings if a team is favorite or not ,but you can't see if it's a good bet. The bet is decided with "match rating" (like -12). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, nothing wrong with Tolima. I've just checked stats with this setting (-17 rating, World, dropping odds) ... and it's 106% payout. With 106% payout and 2.30 odds you can still lose a bet. But it was OK. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It just means that we get "high odds" (team is not necessarily favorite, but has grat odds). Negative rating = great odds on HOME. Positive rating = great odds on AWAY. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Big rating = strong bet. Prefer bets with -22 or +32 or -45. They are better than bets with -6 or +5 or -3. Also always choose bold teams. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If we have in 4 out of 5 bookies (80%) dropping odds, it's quite clear. Today "Northeast United" in India is dropping for example and it's sill not visible here, because of Bwin still sticking to old odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Dropping odds on bold teams means: TAKE bet. Dropping odds on "not bold team" means AVOID. If odds drop on wrong team (not bold) payout is like: 96% for the not bold team (where we have dropping odds) and 92% for the bold team. Only if odds drop on bold team we have >100%. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bet on bold teams. It's simple as that! |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, usually it's not good if odds stay the same. I would say that for -15 or -20 maybe 80% of all games drop. Notice that we have first the big rating, then odds drop. Also here the drops are only from Bwin.com. You may check in other bookies if odds drop there. If yes, take the bet, even if it's not confirmed grey here (... because Bwin is late). |
Soccer-Rating.com: from history: 7-10 is not that good, and if you don't take it, it's OK. But there's also difference between major leagues (UK1, IT1, ES1, DE1 ...) and exotic world leagues. Major leagues can accept lower ratings, I think down to 6. Exotic leagues need higher ratings. Here are some stats from TODAY page: 7-99: 100.10% 10-99: 99.98% 15-99: 102.17% 20-99: 102.91% 30-99: 105.09% ... and so on. Profit starts from rating 10 or mabye 12. This also where "Odds Calculator" will show value odds, I believe. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey is a recommended tip / bet. It needs "dropping odds" to become a recommended tip. In Nkana I also see grey background.. Maybe you checked it earlier (and odds didn't drop yet)? In "Live Tips" page sometimes a good tip is not grey, because odds already dopped too much. OO/AO -27/2 is avoided in "Live Tips", but a tip in "Today". I still like -27/2 and I would take it. Rules for today page and grey: * Rating 7-99 * Odds are dropping in Bwin.com * Round in season: 2-30 (some bets with high rating are avoided because of late round! Late round is not good, because no value if all teams have played each other 500 times). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Odds lead to a fixed "team rating". For example same odds for home & away team (like 2.55 3.30 2.55) means same rating for both tems. This is a fact and can't be changed by "settings". "Match rating" is just the rating difference for a team from current round to previous round. Let's say in round 11) it is with new odds "team rating" 1640 and in round 10) it was with old odds "team rating" 1662 => then we have have a (-22). We will bet on this team, because we get now much higher odds than before. Again this is a mathematical fact. The only problem could bet that higher odds can be sometimes justified (lots of injuries/suspensions, no motivation, important players left the club, very bad form ...). So sometimes you have to think, if a (-22) is "great" or "still not enough". |
Soccer-Rating.com: Again some tips: - take European leagues or National Teams - use higher ratings, at least 10 - watch the odds market. What we would like is clear Dropping Odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: yes, not very strong, but acceptable. It' a good tip on AWAY. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, these are 2 different things. For a bet with odds only the match rating is important. The team rating is important if you want to know who is favorite. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Try this: - choose only European leagues. They are better than world and more reliable. - choose obly games with grey background. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, this is AVOID. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Red dot: game is live Yellow dot: game is starting very soon Grey dot: game has already finished |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bwin.com Also in Today's page all odds are only from Bwin.com. |
Soccer-Rating.com: OO/AO -5/+5 is either AVOID or HOME WIN. Remember: OO is more important than AO. But to be honest, +5 is not much. For me it's AVOID. Good bets start with +7 or +10. OO/AO -21/+3 is better example and here it's HOME WIN. |
Soccer-Rating.com: yes, AO/OO -5/+13 is also AVOID. This is at least my experience. It's nt good to take AWAY win here. You decide which team to bet wih OO rating and you don't change it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Soccer Rating is "anti-cyclic" for sure. But that's the idea in a bet. If you take the side where fewer people stand, you should win in the long run. Besides, Soccer-Rating.com is mathematics. If you see a (-22), it's not only the rating from soccer-rating.com. = It's the mathematical rating, if all closing odds from history are true. This has some value. It's like a changing price for a thing or service and we "buy" it, if the price is low, and we "sell" it, if the price is high. This can't be wrong after 1000, 2000, 3000 bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) Yes. Take. 2) OO/AO 21/30 = odds drop on the other team (not the bold team). Avoid. 3) It's great. Take. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, you can rely only on OO rating from -10 to -99 for home win. And +10 to +99 for away win. |
Soccer-Rating.com: A bold team with high rating usually means there is "disadvantage". That's why there are higher odds than normal after all. The most common reason will be bad form for bold team. It's possible to analyze these disadvantages (bad form, missing players ...) and decide if it's worth the new match rating. But in a computer betting system you will just take everything with a certain rating ... and this also works. I would recommend this. Don't make it too complicated. Only with very high ratings >50 or <-50 it's worth to check the match in detail ("what happens here? why do we have such strange odds"?). |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) With -32 I would take home team and ignore odds movement. Except you see good reasons which "justify" a -32. This can be different motivation (home team is unmotivated, away team is not). 2) don't confuse ABSOLUTE ratings (= team rating) with RELATIVE ratings (= match rating). The team rating (like 1940.34) tells you which team is favorite. The match rating (like -32) tells you which team you should take for your bet. A -32 means we have great odds for home team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, you should never bet against bold team. Either you take bold team or avoid. Finland vs. Estonia today is special, because not the best players of both nations are playing (today is not standard FIFA firendly date ... most players will be at their clubs). It's also AVOID. But if this would be a World Cup Qualification match (with best players & both teams having still changes to qualify = motivation), it would be Home Win (-14).. |
Soccer-Rating.com: All tips are highlighted (grey background) and you take the bold team. You can also choose tips without grey background if there is a high rating (... and maybe you see odds start to drop). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thailand (+58) Negative Rating = Bet on Home Win Positive Rating = Bet on Away Win +58 is really a huge rating with high confidence. Here we can even ignore the dropping odds on Bahrain. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, this will also come. Thanks for all your suggestions! :-) |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, sure you can. Results are same with 1x2 odds or Asian Handicap (AH) odds. If 1x2 strategy is positive, same bets with AH odds will be also positive. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bold are important players. Not bold are substitute players. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) yes, to add number of games played and maybe goals for injuries & suspensions is a great idea. I will probably do this. 2) the other idea is also nice to avoid DRAWS. Here I think about goals scored from league table. The team with most goals scored will get 100% in offensive index. MERRY CHRISTMAS to ALL! :-) |
Soccer-Rating.com: Of ourse rating 20 or rating 30 is stronger than rating 10. For example Today page is like this: rating >=7 = 99% rating >=40 = 110% (with ~350 bets in a year). Problems to consider with high ratings are: * in very Low leagues, ratings will be much higher than in Major Leagues. A -40 rating in Armenia is different (maybe not so strong) than a -40 rating in Spain 2 (strong bet). * avoid first or late rounds in a season. Late rounds especially where both teams have different motivation. "Strange Odds" page shows also very Low Leagues. In "Today" page we have mostly Major Leagues. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bookmaker is Bwin. There are many possible strategies. For example try to take only highlighted bets with rating >=30 or >=40 from Today page. By the way, ratings show strong odds compared to last game of both teams. Sometimes even a +10 can be a great bet, for example if you can't see any reason why the bold team has higher odds than before (reasons can be: new injuries, suspensions, bad form, no motivation). |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't understand your question. If odds are 2.55 3.30 2.55, then odds rating can be everything for this example. It can be -21 or +34 ... or maybe even 0, but that would be just coincidence. Zero rating = fair odds. If in your example fair odds are 2.10 for Home Win, then rating would be approx. -20 (= tip on Home Win, because we get 2.55 and fair is 2.10!). |
Soccer-Rating.com: All odds you can see here on Today page are from only one bookie: bwin.com A bookie with higher payout will just have higher odds (for example 4.20 instead of 4.00). By the way, you can use bookies like Bwin or Bet365 very well for bets on FAVORITES (like 1.50 or 1.60). Odds are always OK for favs! Mainstream bookies are just difficult with underdogs. There you have to find different bookies with bigger payout. Pinnacle for example, if they allow your country. About strategy pages here: "Betting Picks" = odds are from Pinnacle "Strategy Creator" = odds are from Bet365 If you like favorites, take a look at the Strategy Creator with low odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Let's say: Opening/Dropping/Available OO / DO / AO -21 / -11 / -31 = AVOID! OO / DO / AO -21 / -11 / -15 = TAKE! You can still take it, if available odd is below OPENING (!) odds, even it's a little bit higher than DROPPING (!) odd. For complete analyze you should check these 3 numbers: OO -> DO -> AO |
Soccer-Rating.com: It goes like this: Opening Odds -> Dropping Odds -> Available Odds (for example 2.20 -> 2.00 -> 1.90) For all these 3 states you can find ratings here at soccer-rating.com. Here in Today page you can see Opening Odds rating (OO), the most important rating. If we have more than one drop in history (2.20 -> 2.00 -> 1.90) of course Availble Odds Ratings is different than Opening Odds Rating. 3 examples with 2.20 and OO rating -23: 2.20 -> 2.00 -> 1.90 is approx. -23/-14/-10 (OO/DO/AO) 2.20 -> 2.00 -> 2.50 is approx. -23/-14/-32 (OO/DO/AO) 2.20 -> 1.80 -> 1.80 is approx. -23/-5/-5 (OO/DO/AO) With ratings you can also see how "strong" the drop is. And the zero (0) rating would be fair odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Dark background = preferred tips Main choice is Dropping Odds + rating >=7 for dark background. But also "round" in season is considered. We avoid very late rounds in season, because by that time bookmakers know correct ratings. - look at tips with dark background first! - but of course also white background can be a good choice. Something with -31 ... and you see dropping odds in other bookies (Today = odds from bwin only)? Take it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Your example is dropping odd and I would take the 3.05 as fast as possible (because 1.80 seems to be fair + odds start to drop). The only thing is that there is really huge difference in your example between 1.80 fair and 4.50 opening. Very often there is "motivation" involved with VERY strange odds. Then of course strange odds are explainable but still ... in your example ... I would take it anyway. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey/Black line in today's page is: Recommended tips. Rules: - 7-99 rating - odds range 1.10 - 7.00 - max. round 36 (= not very late in season) But you can also choose any other tips without grey line! You see a -31 with dropping odds (in other bookmakers) which you like ? Try it. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, odds for all rating calculations and most pages are from BWIN! Also there are these 2 exceptions: Strategy Creator = Bet365 odds Betting Picks = Pinnacle odds |
Soccer-Rating.com: Dark colour in live tips means it's a preferred betting pick (you can also see these with button "Show Tips"). Yes, it can change -> if odds drop. If odds drop too much, it will disappear. But of course the initial bet (with higher odds!) is still valid in this case. Also you may consider any other bet, even if they are not highlighted. Let's say a matcht with -31 / -31 is still good in my opinion: Home Win. |
Soccer-Rating.com: it's a fixed formula, but this formula is of course a secret of this site. Some rules: - Same odds = always same rating. - this is zero (0) rating: 2.55 3.30 2.55 - ratings from odds show first of all rating DIFFERENCE of 2 teams (= relative strength). To get absolute ratings like 2043 we just need a couple of games in history IMPORTANT: Everything is 100% maths. There is only correct solution for "odds ratings" (if we know odds!) and not something like "settings". |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) it's my rating. Odds are from bwin, but it doesn't matter. If we take any other bookie, we will have very similar ratings (maybe +- 5 max.) 2) if we have matches ... one with OO/AO 11/1 and the other with OO/AO 11/-1 ... then these two are very similar. It doesn't mean that you must bet Away win in first and Home win in second. I would go in all 2 examples for Away Win (trust the OO rating more in this case). 3) It's bwin money flow. You can see the money flow in difference of OO / AO ratings. Let's say another 2 examples: First with OO/AO -33 /-12, Second with OO/AO -5/-12. Again 2 different matches. I would prefer the frist one and bet Home win and avoid the second one. In 2nd example money flow isn't on exepcted team, which is a bit strange, so avoid. |
Soccer-Rating.com: - if you need fixed ratings, just stick to Opening Odds Rating (OO). This will not change. - if fast Dropping Odds are a problem: update time for soccer-rating.com is always XX:30, every hour. If you check the site at XX:30, you can find new tips. I also know many punters who are successful with Opening Odds strategies. This means in Today Page you will actaully not check ratings from "today" ... but ratings from a few days in advance (2-4 days are optimum). |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1. odds for ratings and team pages are indeed from bwin, but it's not regulated by any bookie. 2. of course if odds drop. Think about it: A team is overrated (like -22). Then odds drift in expected direction (like -4). Then it's only slightly overrated and value has probably gone. 3. yes! You can also see how big this money flow is. OO / AO -30 -4 = big change in market. Another exmaple: OO / AO -30 -28 = only minor change in market. Actually you can see so many things with these 2 rating numbers ... 4. I recommend 1x2 bets and you should bet a few hours before start of game. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Forget the draw and never bet on draw! (exception: only in very special if both teams are happy with draw, for example in cups with group stage). Draw odds are always depending on Home/away win odds. If odds on fav get higher, of course draw odds get higher. With my site choose either Away Win or Home Win. If odds drop too much, you can swich teams. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Movemenet is: Opening Odds -> Dropping Odds (= first odds move) -> Available Odds Typical ratings can be: OO / DO / AO 20 -> 12 -> 5 This would be an expected movement with dropping odds on our team. But every other combination is also possible of course ... and usually this means AVOID for our bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 1) yes, it's simply opening odds (first odds) 2) yes. If you want a fixed strategy, just base it on Opening Odds Rating (OO rating. Very simple! Then your bets are fixed and won't change (... with new odds flow). 3) no. I think starting odds are always set in a way that they can profit the most. E.g. very attractive teams with good form will get lower opening odds than before. The openig odds rating (OO) is very good. Test it! |
Soccer-Rating.com: I don't know Bet9ja. I see it's Nigerian site. But of course you can use it and it will be as good as any other bookmaker.
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Soccer-Rating.com: If you want constant ratings, just take the Opening Odds rating (OO rating). This will not change. You can accesss OO rating from different pages. It's the first number here in this OO/AO example: OO/AO -30 -12 |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, why not? It can be OO/AO -20 -10 at time point. And then if odds drop on other team, we can have OO/AO -20 -20 later. This would be same odds as opening odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: To predict draw is not possible with soccer-rating.com. There is either advantage on home team (negative rating) or away team (positive rating). If there is value in draw, then it's just a consequence of Home/Away strength evaluation. For example we find value for a big underdog with 6.50, then of course the draw with maybe 4.00 will also have value (because it is more likely then bookie think). |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, it can. Odds can change until start of game. Of course "First Odds Move" is fixed. But "Available Odds Rating" can change in both directions. If odds drop on "our team" (the betting advice), the rating will go down - and move more close to 0 rating. If odds rise on "our team", the rating will also go up. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Bold teams: if you want to analyze a certain match, choose the bold team. This is always the suggested tip (with confidence -> see ratings). Highlighted: These are preferred tips! Those with bigger ratings. If you are not sure what to do today and your checking Today's page for new tips -> just focus on highlighted matches. |
Soccer-Rating.com: A 15-20 rating produces Fair Odds in odds calculator. I don't like +5 or -3 rating. But anything with > +10 or < -10 will be OK. Just be clever and try to add other strategies. Some leagues are very good, others are not. Do we have dropping odds? And so on. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Have patience! Try to follow a strategy for a full year, because a year means a whole seson with all ups and downs. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Negative rating = Bet on Home Win Positive rating = Bet on Away Win ---- Home Win | Neutral | Away Win +++++ Stronger rating = more confidence The math. calculation is made with odds from the past. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, not all tips are winning (surprise). You still have an advantage of 10% or more if you follow the basic rules. Also odds shown here are not best odds available. They are all from just a single bookie with 90% payout in average. |
Soccer-Rating.com: For Accumulators/Combos there will be soon better selections! In general: If you have any suggestions, please use this feedback page or just mail us (Contact is on bottom of page) For now you can use Luck Bets in the Betting Tools menu for accumulators. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, bet on bold teams. Other basic rules and easy to understand is: * Negative Rating = you should bet on Home Win * Positive Rating = you should bet on Away Win This rating is not about the favorite, it's about which team has attractive odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Try the Betting Challenge! |