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Our ratings are calculated by analyzing all closing odds from the past. With a massive database of over 1,000,000 games and their closing odds, we can accurately calculate "expected odds" for any new game. 📈
This isn’t guesswork; it’s a precise mathematical task with only one correct solution. The challenge lies in converting past odds, which reflect relative strength, into absolute strength – and yes, it’s possible! 🧮
Understanding this is crucial! It sets soccer-rating.com apart from other systems. It also means you can trust our ratings – they are based on solid mathematical facts. The bold team always offers excellent betting odds compared to previous weeks. 🏆
Our ratings are immutable. You can’t change, adjust, or improve them through settings. A -12.85 rating will always remain -12.85. It’s pure mathematics, and the calculation of "expected odds" for future games is fixed because all past closing odds are fixed. 🔒
💡 Here’s an example of how the system works:
Week 1:
Team A vs. Team B 2.55 3.30 2.55
Team C vs. Team D 2.20 3.40 3.30
From this, we know that Team B away has the same strength as Team A at home. While we don’t know the absolute strength (it could be 1600 vs. 1600 or 1832 vs. 1832), the relative strength is identical. That’s a fact, isn’t it? We also know that Team C at home is slightly stronger than Team D away. This information is carried forward into the following weeks, and with each round, we get a more detailed picture of the team strengths in the league.
Finally, after just 3 or 4 weeks, we can calculate (!) expected odds for any team combination. Calculate, not guess! We then compare these to the actual odds for a new round and place our bets if we see a profit opportunity.
We’re talking about match ratings here – those numbers like 12 or -5 that are tied to a specific game (as opposed to the easier-to-understand team strength ratings like ∅ 72). 📊
Glossary:
Key Rules for the Ratings:
These ratings are strictly mathematical calculations based on previous odds.
The combination of Opening Odds Rating (OO) and Available Odds Rating (AO) is particularly interesting.
These two numbers show you:
Which team has value? Which team should you bet on? (negative = home win, positive = away win)
Have the odds dropped, and if so, by how much?
For example lets' take: OO / AO -25 -6.
Here, the odds have apparently dropped since the odds rating went down from -25 to -6. But a bet is still attractive (rating -6). 📉
Try to understand soccer-rating.com with the example OO / AO -25 -6 (it's a possible bet on "home win" with dropping odds)!
A negative rating shows value on the home team. Odds have already dropped, naturally reducing the value. 🏡
Soccer-Rating.com provides you with a mathematical component for betting decisions. You can either apply a strict system or weigh by yourself whether a new odds rating might be "justified". ⚖️
The match rating / odds rating is directly given by the bookmakers who publish current odds. Is the bookmaker’s decision correct or exaggerated in rating a particular team stronger / weaker (in relation to all previous games)? If justified (due to absences or different motivation for example), you wouldn’t place a bet. ❌
Soccer-Rating.com Match Ratings can be used in various ways, even in profitable fully automated systems.
Key Rules: