Strategy Creator Tutorial
The most important settings are Rating Opening Odds, Rating Dropping Odds and Rating Available Odds.
Opening Odds, Dropping Odds
Ratings of Opening Odds and Dropping Odds are important to identify a good bet.
As soon as bookmakers offer opening odds, we calculate new ratings. This gives us a rating number and a definite team which we prefer to bet.
A higher rating number means in theory a stronger confidence of this bet.
After some time odds will usually drop on one of these teams. If odds drop on "our team", this is like a confirmation for our first choice and now it becomes a potential bet.
However, a drop on the right team always means that the rating number is again lowered a bit.
If rating opening odds is 20, then rating dropping odds can be 14 or even lower.
Opening Odds = rating based on opening odds
Dropping Odds = rating based on odds after the first odds drop
Rating Available Odds is the rating of your bet with present odds.
The Strategy Creator has a 48 hours rule. All bets are published earliest 48 hours before kick-off. If dropping odds develop very fast, it can happen that at this time we don't see any value in this bet anymore.
For example this is possible if we have rating opening odds 20, but rating available odds near 0 or even negative.
Available Odds = rating of your bet !
Lineup Rating Advantage
You can see ∅ Lineup Ratings on team pages. There is a difference in expected lineup (= grey shirt) and live/confirmed lineup (= red shirt).
Use this setting, if you want to have a lineup rating advantage and stronger players for your team. A lineup rating advantage of zero is true for all games with equal ratings (e.g. ∅ 54 vs. ∅ 54).
You can also use negative numbers to accept a slightly disadvantage, which can be useful for example with higher odds / bets on underdogs.
Of course the lineup rating at time of your bet is respected and it may have changed meanwhile, because of confirmed lineup or new injuries.
Round = in this setting you can decide if you want to avoid early or late bets in a football season. If you want to avoid early bets, you can set this setting for example to 5-99 to avoid first 4 match-days of the season when ratings of teams are still developing.
Time = here you can choose preferred time of your bet in hours before start of match. All bets appear earliest 48 hours before kick-off, so that's the maximum setting. Latest possible setting is 10 hours - this means your bets will arrive at latest 10 hours before start of match.
For example a strategy can focus on very early bets - this would be a setting like 35-48 (hours).
A turning point exists if we have a series of at least 3 increasing (or decreasing) ratings in the rating graph and then a switch to opposite direction.
Preferred settings for turning points are No / No or maybe All / All.
The reason can be described as What goes up, must come down. It seems just like a normal market reaction, that ratings (odds) are lowered after several increases.
Odds Range is one of the least important settings considering your payout. But of course it's very important to decide the risk that you want to take to be comfortable with your bets.
If you don't like high odds (because of course these bets are losing more often), just filter out these odds. In general, you should see it as a risk decision rather than an important setting to define your payout.
Very low odds can be unprofitable, especially if you don't bother about taking highest odds available. This is because it makes a huge difference if odds offered are 1.20 or 1.25.
In our rating system we are aware of some problems: Cup Matches are one of these. The basic idea is that we try to measure constant strength of teams.
It's obvious that cup matches are a problem, because in some countries it's considered less important or we have cup tournaments with group stages.
We clearly prefer knock-out tournaments, because every team will have some motivation - still the problem exists if just some of usually reserve players get their chance.
The expectation is that cup matches give less payout than league matches. Additionally, a potential (unjustified) change of ratings is inherited to next rounds.
The preferred setting is Avoid Cup Matches 2nd Generation - this means we avoid also all league matches right after a cup round.
A very basic rule in league configuration is that Major Leagues allow lower rating numbers and in Lower Leagues you should try higher rating numbers.
Two reasons for this: In Major Leagues it's very likely that all closing odds from the past have been near to true odds (near 0).
There's no reason why we should now have in just one match really big rating changes.
The other reason is simply that Major Leagues have a bookmaker's payout of 98% and Lower Leagues sometimes 90% or lower. That means we need higher rating numbers to be proftable.
Back to Football Strategy Creator