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Home Advantage in Football Betting

As we all know, one of many factors in football betting is the well-known advantage for the home team.
Since the invention of football, teams seem to be stronger playing in their home stadium in front of their fans than away.

This is interesting, because it implies that "team strength" is the product of many factors.

(1) Physical skills:

(2) Mental skills:

The first group is much easier to predict than the second group. However, let's take a closer look into Home Advantage.

Is Home Advantage real or a myth?


This is easy to answer: Just check a random league table and with a few exceptions almost every team will have a stronger performance at home than away. Sounds great? Yes, but of course bookmaker's odds will reflect this fact.
A Betting Calculator can be a great help for successful bets, but you will just find in average lower odds for the home team than the away team. No surprise here and a strategy to bet "only home wins" is useless, unless we take a closer look into statistics.

Timbers vs Chivas

Home Wins: Which leagues are the most interesting to bet?


Using soccer-rating.com ratings, we can identify these 11 leagues with strongest home advantage in 2017:

(Home-Away)
Rating Points
1.Albania128.09
2.Macedonia122.79
3.Greece117.18
4.Spain113.96
5.Norway110.69
6.Romania103.83
7.Azerbaijan99.40
8.Czech Republic95.95
9.France94.82
10.Russia93.82
11.Bosnia-Herzegovina93.24

Home Advantage has two main reasons:

- (1) very enthusiastic fans lead to home advantage (Albania, Macedonia, Greece or Bosnia)

- (2) big traveling distances (Norway, Russia, Spain or France).

We can find less home advantage in small UEFA countries like Estonia, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Denmark ... and yes, also Germany or England. Bundesliga and the Premier League have the biggest crowd attendances in the world, but sadly most fans want to be entertained instead of cheering and helping their team.

Conclusion


In my opinion, you shouldn't generalize home advantage too much.
Think about both "fans" & "traveling distance", if you are looking for a great bet.

Spain and Norway seem to be very interesting leagues for a home win strategy.

Last but not least, Derby Games are a special case. The traveling distance is ultra-short, but fans will be very enthusiastic and excited in a derby. I have been to derbies a few times in my life and my advice is:
Forget about any theory here. :-) Just enjoy the beautiful game!


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