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Betting Strategy
3,231.80 Units (111.31%) profit? How does it work?
The strategy of soccer-rating.com is highly based on mathematics - but it is also
including dynamic elements by following Dropping Odds.
Odds in 1x2 matches describe a relative relationship of strength between two teams.
If we use ratings, we are able to convert this relative relationship into absolute numbers.
These absolute numbers show actual strength of teams seen by bookmakers.
Basics:
We bet on a team, if its rating seems to be too low - compared to previous weeks.
We lay a team, if its rating seems to be too high - compared to previous weeks.
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Opening Odds:
We use Opening Odds Rating Adjustments to filter out strange matches with
strange odds/ratings - which seem to be either too high or too low, if you compare it
to odds from previous rounds.
Rating Adjustments are mathematical, absolute numbers which can be easily handled
in filters. This variable should be chosen around 10 - 20 rating points to get good results.
If we use a higher Rating Adjustment, we will get better results.
Example Strange Opening Odds:
 Bookmakers: This team is rated stronger than in previous matches.
Dropping Odds:
Dropping Odds are a good tool to include a dynamic environment into the model. If
we have filtered out some games with strange odds (high rating adjustments), that's good and we keep
an eye on these matches.
If there are Dropping Odds after some time on one of these matches, we take the
bet by following Dropping Odds. You should always set Dropping Odds around 5 - 10 rating points
lower than Opening Odds.
Example:
Bookmakers: This team is rated stronger than in previous matches.
Turning point in the rating graph:
We are looking for odd rating changes which are actually wrong. But if we have
a turning point, a higher rating adjustment might be justified.
If team A has had a rising rating in 5 consecutive weeks before and now in week 6
a dropping rating (turning point), a higher rating adjustment than usual might be
justified - probably the new rating will be still much higher than in week 1.
We suggest to skip matches with turning points included.
Odds Range:
You should not bet on matches where we have either too low or too high odds.
But odds around @8.00 are still fine and usually worth a bet.
We make a difference between major leagues and lower leagues, because:
- in major leagues there shouldn't be a difference in performance between low odds (@1.40)
and high odds (@8.00). These leagues are very well analyzed by professional punters and
bookmakers can't afford to set wrong odds.
- in lower leagues we don't have these professional punters who could equalize the market
with a single bet (let's say 10.000$ on match A, odds @6.50). Also because of
bet limits - which will be low in lower leagues -, the market will be much more influenced by
the vast majority of bettors which will prefer lower odds and bring in the money for bookmakers.
Be careful with low odds in lower leagues, even if they drop!
Cup Games:
Cup Games are a fuzzy factor in our model! If we have a cup game between 1st league team
and a team from 4th level, we will usually have high rating adjustments (in favor of
1st league team) which will be corrected in next league game (the 1st league
team will lose its rating points which have been won in cup game).
We suggest to skip cup games and the following league games which might be influenced
due to sideline effects (rating corrections).
Strange Odds Type
If we have Strange Opening Odds (example: 50 rating points adjustment) and after a while Dropping Odds, we have just 2 possibilities:
- Punters follow the tendency of Strange Opening Odds. Rating adjustment might increase to 70 rating points in our example.
This is Correct Strange Odds.
- Punters don't follow the tendency of Strange Opening Odds. Rating adjustment might be corrected down to 35 rating points in our example.
This is Wrong Strange Odds.
Example Opening Odds:
Now odds drop after a while and we have just 2 possibilities - odds drop on Manchester United or on Newcastle...
Example Correct Strange Odds:
Example Wrong Strange Odds:
We advise to concentrate on Wrong Strange Odds.
Ratings of football teams should have a low variance, because you have to see
the whole team has a unity consisting of 11 players, some substitutes, a coach and
the environment in the background.
If we do have Strange Opening Odds (usually because of bad results in recent rounds),
the first idea and speculation should be always that this adjustment is wrong - and it would be better
to keep the old rating which has been proven before over weeks.
There might be some rare exceptions, for example if the team actually has 6 new signings
which will be in the starting line up. In these rare cases, you can't compare new rating
to ratings from previous weeks, but in general all our statistics show:
Wrong Strange Odds perform much better than Correct Strange Odds.
Conclusion:
Soccer-Rating.com is providing a unique Betting Strategy which is based on mathematics:
We consider only these games as probable bets which have strange odds (team ratings), if you
compare it mathematically to odds from previous weeks.
However, we have injuries, suspended players, new signings, different motivation reasons and so on, so we don't rely
on mathematics, but also include the dynamic betting market by following Dropping Odds.
The combination of both makes us a winner ... in the long run!
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