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Soccer-Rating.com: You mean the graph on team pages? There you can see devevlopment of rating for this team over a period of time.T The idea is always to bet on a team when the rating graph is very low (because this means high for the same team). |
Soccer-Rating.com: In "Odds Calculator" you can see the probabilties and "Fair Odds". You could even do it by yourself. You need "ELO Rating Home Team","ELO Rating Away Team" and a draw probability. In "Odds Calculator" draw probability is taken from bookmaker's odds (if they are already published), so it sould be quite accurate. Here is also a formula (ELO): WINNING_PROBABILITY=1/(1+exp((RATING_DIF/400)*log(10))) This is without draw. To inlcude the draw, just think a bit. It's not difficult if you assume that draw is for example 0.27 probability. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Grey is "added in last 24 hours", so the new ones. In general on different pages grey background has either the meaning of "new" or "recommended". I guess you can figure out which one is meant. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Only if ratings get too low, it should be (normally) avoided ... for example if ratings go below 5. In Odds calculator grey just means it's a new tip. |
Soccer-Rating.com: you can check with the different strategy pages. But for European bookmakers around 1.40 - 5.00 is OK. |
Soccer-Rating.com: In "Betting Picks" you can choose a strategy "Asian Handicap on Dropping Odds". It's the first setting ... "Strategy". |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, but Odds Calculator is the same as "Odds Rating" (-20 or +15). If you see a +10, it will show value in odds calculator. So actually there's no need to check it again in odds calculator. Just look at ratings is much faster. |
Soccer-Rating.com: These are "team ratings" and they depend mathematically on odds from matches before. If a team has always very low odds to win in history, it gets a high rating - and vice versa. "Odds ratings" like +12 or -20 (which are derived from team ratings) are a simple way to check if odds are high or low for a team. Actually you can really CALCULATE if odds are good or not in a certain match, the only problem is that the team lineup maybe also changed (and now reserve players are playing for our team) ... here "lineup ratings" will jump in to help. Home/away ratings: In calculation it's like there would be 2 "different" teams like "Bayern Home" and "Bayern Away. It should be very rare that away rating is higher than home rating for a team. Maybe temporarily because of a recent cup match. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, we are surely a bit different than other sites. P1, P7, P9 is "Points" in last 3 matches. P7 = 7 points, 2 wins/ 1 draw. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Actually player ratings are updated every day. But does "strength" of a player change from day to day? Some sites have static ratings for players/teams. Here ratings can change every day. For example if a player was injured for 4 weeks ... and comes back ... his new rating will be a bit lower than before. But in next 2-3 weeks he can reach his old rating again (if he plays). To maintain or even gain rating the most important thing for a player is to be in first team. Sitting on bench means to lose rating points. |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is "confidence" of a tip. You want to have a stronger confidence, so 8/10 is better than 5/10 for example. |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, please try for yourself. Also the "fair odds" number is very difficult to evaluate. It's first of all a mathemical number ... and it doesn't mean that you should only take bets with "odds" > "fair odds". The problem is for example different motivation, injured players and so on. There are better tools here for predcitions than odds calculator. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You mean the team ratings like 1684.48? This is complicated to explain, but important to understand is that it's 100% mathematics (!!!). Only one correct soultion is possible for team ratings. 1684.48 is always 1684.48, there is no way that we can change it. In soccer-rating.com ratings depend solely on odds / closing odds. With this concept, it's fixed. It's complicated to explain, but the idea is easy to understand. Let's say we have SAME ODDS for both teams (2.50 3.30 2.50). Then both teams will get SAME RATING. Because this is what odds say. It also explains relative team strength of both teams TODAY (not from the past) very, very accurate. * to get absoulte ratings we just need a lot of data (here the idea is, if we have thousands of relative relationships we can create absolute ratings). * to get predictions we check calculated ratings from week before. And compare it to new ratings. Calculated ratings from week before are "expected ratings". If there is a big difference from expected ratings to new ratings, we bet and trust expected ratings. |
Soccer-Rating.com: DRAW: You can see now the option "0% draw". This is for example in a scenario like "which team will advance?" in cup games. Odds are from Bwin.com. |
Soccer-Rating.com: From Odds Calculator: (N) = Neutral Ground (X) = deletes neutral ground From all pages: OO/AO means Opening Odds Rating / Available Odds Rating A high OO means higher value. But odds can drop of course. For example if we have OO/AO -10/0 ... then it means there WAS a quite good bet on home win with opening odds. But odds have already dropped. And now with available odds we have AO 0 ... and no mathemical value anymore. You must think a bit about it to understand it. But OO/AO is a really cool tool and you can almost anything with it. Is there "value" in odds? How much did odds drop already? Did odds drop on our team or on the other team? |
Soccer-Rating.com: Thanks, "formation" will be available for ALL leagues at next weekend. You can already see the role in player listings (we have GK,DF,MF,STriker). And of course in new formation scheme, so I don't think we need another text line. |
Soccer-Rating.com: It's surely possible and I will think about your idea. By the way, one main idea of ∅ lineup rating is "team chemistry". If you check your favorite team you should notice that established players (also older players) have a higher rating than younger players. At least here in Germany lots of teams promote or are strong who don't have 12 new signings for each season, but a good team. Lineup rating is not just inidivdual strength / skill of a player. Very important is how he fits into his team. The same player can have Rating 80 in his "domestic team" and Rating 65 in a newly transferred team. Same applies if a player was injured for a longer period. The rating goes down and will go up again after his injury with increasing game stats. The best way to improve your rating is ... to play, just as in reality. |
Soccer-Rating.com: it works in general. But you should consider always both ratings. Odds Rating (OO/AO) and ∅ Lineup Rating. If both are OK, place the bet. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Start with "Sure bets" page. - there check for games with higher ratings - with a clear drop like OO/AO 30/18 or OO/AO -32/-21 It wasn't successful in last WEEK, but it is profitable in the long run. |
Soccer-Rating.com: (N) neutral means that we use AWAY ratings for BOTH teams. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Use the one at the top with "Fair Odds: x.xx". There is sometimes confusion with "present ratings" and "ratings used for prediction". Present ratings are based on most recent bookmaker's odds ... and useles for prediction (becaue they would produce same odds as bookmaker's odds). So to make predictions we use ratings from just the previous match before. Also in fantasy matches or matches yet without bookmaker's odds we would use "present ratings". In real matches with known odds, we would use "rating from match before". |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is "confidence". 5/10 is better than 3/10. Optimum is 10/10. Very good bets start from 8/10. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Done. |
Soccer-Rating.com: After some years of expeience the best OO rating is 8 - 40 or 50. You shouldn't rely too much on theory. In theory of course rating 60 is much better than rating 22. But in reality it isn't (at least for "major leagues"). "Fair odds" is a misleading term, because nobody knows fair odds. In anything with rating >=8 our team is under-valued, lots of people are probably taking the OTHER team and so on ... so it's a good choice. |
Soccer-Rating.com: (N) = Neutral Ground. You can switch between neutral ground or not. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You should simply choose bold team with dropping odds. If for example start to drift (in other "wrong" direction) I don't like the bet. Technically a drift makes the bet even better (more value), but this isn't the case. At least available odds should be below opening odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: You want to check for high ratings. A high rating is like (-21) or (+35). It's better to scan pages likes "Prediction Today" or "Sure bets" to do this. If you see (-21), it means you bet home win. If you see (+35), it means you bet away win. |
Soccer-Rating.com: means AVOID. a) -4 is very low. This is usually not goo. b) -4/-6 means odds drop a little on the OTHER team. So another reason to avoid. You always want to look for a drop on bold team. This would be for example -12/-1. |
Soccer-Rating.com: I really believe form last 3 is stronger and more useful. Which team do you like team better? Home vs. Away: WWWWL vs. LLLLW Momentum in sports is very important. It can be form, a good game before halftime, or even if you come back from 0:1 to 1:1 score. Regarding form I like to AVOID if black team has very strong form. WWW is avoid, because it's very unlikely to find value here. It's strange that we get higher odds (?) on a team with great form. With form LLL for bold team it's OK to take it at home (because of home support & confidence to make the turnaround), but I don't like it to take it away (confidence is down, home team will press in first minutes). |
Soccer-Rating.com: means Home Win. Although I don't like Malaysia. In general European leagues are more reliable than Malayisa. You will often see higher ratings in MY, so -22 is not that strong. |
Soccer-Rating.com: 0 in Opening Odds (OO) is totally AVOID. A zero rating means that odds are set by bookmakers excactly to expected/fair value. 0 in Available Odds (AO) is a bit different. If we have OO/AO -21/0, it's a good bet on HOME. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Odds for ratings are from just one bookmaker: Bwin.com Also the "drops" which you can see on Today page are only from this bookmaker. |
Soccer-Rating.com: This is AVOID. Probablay the AO rating (Available Odds) isn't very big? Look for high ratings first if you want good fair odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Choose on Opening Rating (OO). >=15 or >=20 if you want to be safe. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If fair is 3.58 for HOME and you get 4.00 ... you should bet on HOME win. You always want so search for bigger odds than fair odds. Again it's same as ratings (-13 in this case). |
Soccer-Rating.com: No, OVER/UNDER is not possible right now with soccer-rating.com. Sorry. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, but it's same as "bold team" or a high rating >10. A rating >10 will have at least fair odds on bold team. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Yes, you are right. With odds we get first of all RELATIVE ratings of 2 teams. In your examples it would be relative rating ZERO. The trick is to convert it to ABSOLUTE ratings (like 2400). To do this we only need more matches from history (and a random starting rating). So let's say starting rating is 1600 for all teams and then we let it develop with new odds. After some time Real and Barcelona will have +2000 rating. And again, I've said it many times: The ratings here are fixed (with odds) and true. If soccer-rating.com says 2184.47 then this is 100% correct rating, given all closing odds from history. It's just mathematics like 1+1 = 2. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Not much. The team ratings just reflect odds. For example if we have equal odds 2.55 3.30 2.55, then team ratings would be also equal ... like 1750 vs. 1750. Important for betting are the match ratings. Like -11.45 for home win or +24.38 for away win. |
Soccer-Rating.com: If you want to see fair odds in Odds Calculator, just ignore the line "Expected Bookmaker's Odds (110%)". Only the line "Fair Odds" is important for you. About Macao I'm not sure what you mean? You can switch between Europe and World in Odds Calculator (link on top of page) and in World you find Macao as a nation. You can check fair odds for Macao vs. any other nation. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Fair odds prediction is not always the favorite team. These are 2 different things ... Most other prediction sites show you the favorite to win. In soccer-rating.com you can see which team is "a good bet" (which can be either fav or underdog). You want to search in bookmakers for higher odds than fair odds. Fair Odds = 2.00, Bookmaker = 2.10 =-> you bet. Of course also underdogs can be good bets. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Odds Calculator is for both: Fantasy or real matches. If you want to check a real match, you enter the teams and you will see Fair Odds calculated with mathematics! You can also check other pages like Today Predictions. A high rating means interesting Fair Odds. |
Soccer-Rating.com: Draw depends on calculated odds for home & away teams in calculator (low 1x2 odds = low draw probility). DRAW IS NOT REALLY CALCULATED in the calculator (we can only estimate favorites, not draw). But you can set the draw probability by yourself. Which is recommended in your example. Also for friendlies you can set 'Neutral Ground' with the (N) link in 'Home Team => (N)'. |