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Ratings are easier to understand than it seems to be. The important rule to understand is:
The rating difference of two teams is important to calculate winning probabilities. Not absolute ratings!
The difference in the ratings between two team serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match.
E_{A} = 1 / ( 1+10 ^{(Rb-Ra)/400 }) E_{A} winning probability R_{A} Rating Home R_{B} Rating Away ELO rating system |
For example in ELO a team whose rating is 100 points greater than his opponent's is expected to win in 64% of all games. It doesn't matter if ratings of home and away team are 2100 - 2000, 1874 - 1774 or even 1091 - 991!
In all these cases the rating difference is 100 and we can calculate same odds (64% winning probability => 1/0.64 = 1.56 odds - without draw).
Notice: Odds express relative strength of two teams, a very similar concept to ratings.
To calculate soccer predictions we analyse 1x2 odds and transform it to ratings.
This is possible, because known odds means a fixed rating difference (for example same odds for home and away team = same ratings).
After a while we get our ratings and rankings like Football Club Rankings or Football Country Rankings.
Now it's only a very simple step to use these ratings to create football predictions. We can calculate 1x2 odds for any real our virtual match from teams in our rankings, because simply the rating difference tells us the expected probability.
Notice: If we want to check expected odds for a real football match - for example to provide betting tips - we make all calculations with ratings from round before. To get expected odds, we calculate 1x2 odds using ratings from round before - and compare it to new odds offered from bookmakers.
Just test the Football Odds Calculator!
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