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Tutorial for Betting Picks
This mathematically based Football Betting Strategy uses previous bookmakers odds to estimate new fair odds.
Odds Ratings are introduced to improve Football & Soccer Predictions.
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SettingInstruction
StrategyAsian Handicap has more stable, but lower results than 1x2. Betting on Opening Odds has more and earlier bets than betting on Dropping Odds, but is less reliable.
Rating
Opening Odds
Most important setting.
Rating Opening Odds is a very good indicator for finding underrated teams. Be aware of factors like injuries, motivation or cup games shortly before or after the match.
Rating
Dropping Odds
Second most important setting.
Rating Dropping Odds is the new odds rating right after the first drop. It's always lower than Rating Opening Odds, because if odds move in the expected direction, they will reduce the value.
Negative values are possible. A negative value advises in theory the opposite team, but low numbers can be tried. The negative value is always a result of dropping odds (e.g. a drop from -10 to +1).
Rating
Available Odds
Rating for odds available at time of betting.
Negative values are possible - see description for dropping odds.
RoundRound in current season.
Early and late rounds can be avoided. Promotions/relegations and transfers create new ratings.
Best time for the rating system should be rounds 5 - 14 in a season: New team ratings are established, but league table can still show big surprises. This is good for value betting!
TimeTime of pick added before start of the match (in hours).
96 = the bet was added 4 days (96 hours) before start of the match.
You can see all bets in next 24 hours on the website. This means that other bets are waiting in line to be shown.
To see bets earlier than on the website, you have the option to create a newsletter.
Turning PointTurning Points are tricky, but can improve results.
The idea is: What goes up, must come down!
If a rating rises, rises, rises ... and then drops, it's a turning point and probably the latest rating change is justified. Try settings No / All or No / No and avoid the Yes. I like this setting!
CupCup Matches create noise in the rating system, which is good and bad at the same time.
Noise is needed to make a bet possible, but too much of it is bad. A major problem are cup matches with group system at late stage (think about motivation!). Handle this one with care and try different settings.
LeaguesA tip regarding leagues: Cup matches like Copa Libertadores in World show huge home advantage - league matches have less. There are also quite a lot of derbies in huge metropolitan areas where home advantage nearly vanishes. This leads to zig-zag ratings and less predictable results.
I think Europe will always perform better than World.
Whitelist LeaguesUse the whitelist setting to test and identify leagues which are not profitable. If you found one (and you see a reason why it should be excluded), delete it from the whiltelist and move this league to Blacklist Leagues.

Good Luck!

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